The LRA has denied reports that its second-in-command Vincent Otti is dead. According to Yusuf Adek, a member of the LRA delegation, Otti however is seriously ill with cholera. "Otti is badly off to the extent that he can not talk and his satellite phone has been taken away from him," Adek said on Radio Mega FM in Gulu on Tuesday night. Otti has not been heard from or seen for several weeks. People close to him, whom he used to call almost daily for the last two years, have not been able to establish contact with him for the last three weeks. Read more at The New Vision.

Patrick Makasi, the senior LRA commander who recently surrendered to UN troops in Congo, has confirmed reports that a rift had developed between LRA leader Joseph Kony and his deputy Vincent Otti. Makasi told journalists that the rift forced him out of the bush. "This rift has been going on for the last one and half years, up to the time it forced me out of the rebellion. It's not only between Kony and Otti, it's also among commanders," Makasi said. Read more at The Monitor.

A Ugandan military spokesman announced that its forces killed one armed Karamojong civilian and wounded two wounded others as they attempted to raid cattle in Kitgum district in northern Uganda. Cross-border raids from Karamoja into northern Uganda have decimated cattle stocks and caused displacement since the 1980s, highlighting the need for an integrated approach to address security threats in the region. Read more at The Monitor.

Today’s weekly update on developments in wider Uganda highlights the ongoing insecurity in Uganda’s northeastern Karamoja region. Six civilians have been killed in recent weeks during forcible disarmament operations carried out by the Ugandan military. The UPDF also announced that it will be ending exercises in Kaabong district to protect cattle camps of vulnerable Karamojong from cattle raiding. A military spokesman said the decision was made after an incident in which several civilians were killed during a battle with “warriors” raiding a protected kraal.

A recent report “Response to Pastoral Wars” by Small Arms Survey argues that the violence in Karamoja must be seen in wider context of insecurity and armed pastoralists in neighboring regions of southern Sudan and northwestern Kenya. The report notes that efforts by regional governments to forcibly disarm pastoralists without addressing chronic poor governance and underdevelopment have instead intensified violence. It highlights local peace initiatives facilitated by local community-groups and elders as more appropriate ways to address insecurity and promote reconciliation.

In our continuing Wednesday focus on northern Uganda's neighbors, we look today at developments in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). A new report by Human Rights Watch, titled "Renewed Crisis in North Kivu," details crimes against civilians by Congolese army soldiers, troops of renegade general Laurent Nkunda, and combatants of a Rwandan opposition force called the Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). A shaky ceasefire between the Congolese army and Nkunda’s troops fell apart in late August and skirmishes between them have continued. Today, the BBC reports that Nkunda will integrate 500 of his fighters into the national army as a gesture of good will. Nkunda has claimed that he is fighting to defend Congolese Tutsi, whom he claims will lack protection without his forces. The ensuing violence has involved not only killing and abduction, but also widespread rape and looting. Moreover, some 370,000 persons have been displaced since late 2006, adding to DRC's already intense humanitarian crisis.

Another report, by the Multi-Country Demobilisation and Reintegration Programme, highlights that two Ugandan rebel groups - the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and National Movement for the Liberation of Uganda (NALU) - have used this instability to maintain bases and exploit resources. Though with limited military capacity, these groups are believed to be attempting to establish new bases in western Uganda. The report also suggests that ADF/NALU rebels have made contacts with LRA rebels based in Garamba Park in northeastern DRC. There had been rumors of such meetings, but we were unable to confirm them. This shows how continued instability in eastern DRC has real implications for sustainable peacebuilding in northern Uganda and the whole of Uganda.

Ugandan diplomats in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa have written to authorities there seeking urgent access to the detained LRA Operations Director Opio Makasi. Makasi allegedly surrendered to UN peacekeeping forces outside Garamba Park on October 9. The petition wired through the Congolese foreign affairs ministry follows two weeks of anxious waiting and rising unease in Kampala over the refusal by Kinshasa authorities to let Ugandan officials reach the detained senior-level LRA commander. Makasi is believed to have substantial information on the funding, armament and military strength of the rebel outfit. Read more at The Monitor.

Six armed Karamojong civilians were killed in the past week during UPDF forcible disarmament campaigns in Uganda’s northeastern Karamoja region. Also, a priest was injured by unknown attackers in an ambush on a convoy returning from a peace mobilization meeting.

Meanwhile, UPDF commanders announced that they were dismantling efforts in Kaabong district to protect cattle camps of vulnerable Karamojong from cattle raiding. They said that Karamojong were abusing the service, for example by stealing their own cattle and requesting compensation. Civil society groups have reported that some UPDF-protected camps have been successful in preventing raiding and positive examples of cooperation between the military and local population. Read more at The Monitor.

The Ugandan government wants a top LRA commander, who surrendered to the UN forces in the DR Congo to be extradited to Uganda. Opio Makasi was LRA director of operations for three years. Makasi, 36, reportedly handed himself to UN troops near Garamba National Park last week and was flown to the Congolese capital of Kinshasa. He was with his wife and a child. Though reports say Makasi fled a violent rift between the two top most LRA leaders, Joseph Kony and Vincent Otti, the rebel outfit denied this yesterday. The Ugandan minister for defense said that Makasi qualifies for amnesty as he is not one among those indicted by the ICC. Read more at The New Vision.

The Monitor is reporting that three senior commanders of the LRA surrendered yesterday to the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), lending credence to reports that there has been a major split within the ranks of the rebel group. The Monitor reports that Commanders Caesar Acellam, Kwoyelo, and Smart Okello entered the SPLA camp at Maridi. The three rebel commanders are believed to have been caught up in a reported gun battle on October 10 in Garamba Park in which LRA leader Joseph Kony and his deputy Vincent Otti found themselves on opposing sides. "There have been problems in the LRA and these people have come to us for refuge," said a senior SPLA source who declined to be named considering the delicate nature of the situation. "We have received them, we have them in Maridi and we are waiting for further instructions from higher authorities." Yet, the SPLA army spokesman denied this report, according to Reuters. We will be following these developments closely.

Recent reports indicate that clashes between Karamojong civilians and the Ugandan military over forced disarmament operations have increased in recent weeks and resulted in casualties on both sides. Tens of thousands of illegal guns are currently circulating in Uganda’s northeastern Karamoja region, but government efforts to disarm civilians have only intensified the violence by not adequately addressing decades of marginalization, cattle-raiding, abusive military operations and a lack of civilian police and judicial institutions. Ugandan President Museveni recent comments that armed Karamojong civilians should not be “pampered” and advocating for a military solution to the insecurity, have raised fears that the Ugandan government will continue to ignore this broader context of the crisis in Karamoja. Stay tuned to the blog in coming weeks to stay abreast of developments in Karamoja.

Here’s our weekly Thursday update and analysis of happenings around Uganda and how they relate to the north. This week we focus on a new report released by Oxfam International, IANSA and Saferworld - titled Africa’s Missing Billions - which estimates the impact of armed conflict on development efforts across Africa. The report estimates that armed conflict costs African economies $18 billion dollars a year, severely hampering access to education and healthcare and preventing millions from escaping poverty.

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Rains which continue to devastate many communities in northern and eastern Uganda are reportedly mitigating some conflict in Uganda’s Karamoja region. The Monitor reports that the rains have diminished the need for pastoralists to range widely in search of water, lessening the chances that feuding groups will come to violence. While drought and competition for natural resources are to blame for some of the widespread insecurity in the region, a political crisis lies at the heart of Karamoja’s woes. Commercialized cattle thievery enabled by a weak civilian police force and aggressive military operations to disarm Karamojong civilians have disrupted traditional seasonal migration routes and made vast swaths of territory no-go zones. The consequences have been artificial aggravation of resource scarcity, breakdowns in traditional alliances between Karamojong groups and a reduction in the capacity of elders and women to mitigate violent cattle raids – problems no amount of rain can address.