Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni yesterday told UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the sidelines of the African Union summit in Ethiopia that the LRA must sign a comprehensive peace deal in March of this year. Chief mediator of the talks Riek Machar today also set a deadline for the talks, specifying March 3rd, while Ugandan military officials added they would resume their offensive against the LRA if the rebels did not sign a peace deal by the end of February. Though the January 31st deadline has passed without incident after the parties earlier this week extended of the cessation of hostilities agreement to the end of February, local civil society leaders have argued that abrupt military ultimatums needlessly disrupt and rush an already fragile peace process.

Machar also set a detailed timetable for the current round of negotiations that began yesterday. His schedule calls for consultations on justice and reconciliation to be completed by February 4th and negotiations on the final ceasefire and demobilization of LRA rebels to be completed by February 11th and 25th, respectively. Read more at The Monitor.

Representatives from the United States and European Union were present as negotiations to end the 21-year war in northern Uganda resumed today in Juba. The entry of US and the EU brings the number of foreign observers to the talks to eight, which many hope will boost the volatile peace process. Dr. Riek Machar, the chief mediator, said: "This is an addition to the peace process; it is an indication that the whole world wants Uganda to be peaceful." The LRA's new lead negotiator Dr. David Matsanga, said: "I am very happy that the Americans have come on board. This makes the peace negotiations stronger." Read more at The Monitor.

Reuters is reporting that the Ugandan government has officially extended the January 31st deadline for the LRA rebels to sign a peace deal or face a return to war. Military chiefs from Uganda and neighboring DR Congo had begun drawing up strategies against the LRA. "The extension is aimed at creating a better atmosphere for the talks to take place so that we can sign a comprehensive peace agreement soon," said Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda, the government's lead negotiator. Talks are set to resume today.

The Ugandan government and LRA met today and extended the landmark cessation of hostilities agreement, set to expire on Thursday, in a move that gives a much needed boost to the Juba peace talks. Originally signed in August 2006, the cessation of the hostilities has been renewed several times since then and is a crucial building block for the resumption of active negotiations, which are slated to resume tomorrow after a six month hiatus. The head of the Ugandan government delegation also downplayed the threat to the talks posed by the January 31st ultimatum for the LRA to leave the DR Congo or face military action (which was reinvigorated over the weekend), saying, "President Museveni has accepted that we can continue with the peace talks.” Read more at Reuters.

The New Vision is reporting that the Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and DR Congo defense ministers meeting over the weekend agreed that the Congolese military should move by Thursday to eject LRA leader Joseph Kony from his Garamba base. "The agreement we reached is that MONUC and the DRC will work as earlier planned and act on Kony by January 31 of this month," army spokesman Capt. Paddy Ankunda said. Meanwhile, The Monitor is reporting that the LRA are appealing to the government not to attack the rebels this week with talks about to resume in Juba.

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With negotiations expected to resume in Juba on Wednesday or Thursday this week, many are keenly watching to learn more about the new head of the LRA negotiating team, David Nyekorach-Matsanga. Today's Monitor explores Matsanga's past and rumors about his influence on the peace process. Matsanga recently said, "I will prove my critics wrong; I will show them that I am fighting for peace for the people in northern Uganda and that Kony trusts me to do that." During the reshuffling, the Ugandan government has officially stated they "will negotiate with anyone to make sure that peace returns to northern Uganda soon." We'll see when talks resume later this week. You can also visit Matsanga's own website, called "Africa News Flash."

The New Vision is reporting that Ugandan defense minister, Dr. Crispus Kiyonga, said this weekend that the LRA rebels are "reorganizing and making several political overtures in a bid to reflect itself in a good light." Kiyonga said this in a speech read at the opening of the fourth meeting of the Tripartite Plus Commission, which brings together military leaders from Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the DR Congo. His statement underlines the still-looming prospect of military operations by Uganda and DR Congo against the rebels.

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The New Vision reported on Friday that the Ugandan government's delegation will be ready to resume talks this upcoming week with the LRA in Juba. "The date is not finalised yet," the chief negotiator, Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda said. However, sources said that talks are likely to resume on Wednesday. This comes after a reshuffling of the LRA negotiating team last week.

International Affairs Minister Okello Oryem has reportedly told The Daily Monitor that the killing of deputy LRA leader Vincent Otti may complicate and delay the peace process. Otti's death was confirmed this week, but has been suspected for some time. Oryem said that Otti's killing "erodes trust in Kony and will definitely choke the talks when we resume next week...Otti's killing is a crime in the Uganda constitution and we have a problem with that." However, the government's lead negotiator Ruhakana Rugunda seemed to take a different tone, describing Otti's death as "an unfortunate incident" but saying that dealing with peace talks to end the 21-year war is more urgent. We tend to agree - rather than stirring up new legal disputes that undermine confidence in the peace process, Ugandan ministers should seize the new momentum to resume negotiations that offer the hope of finally freeing northern Uganda from war.

The firing of several LRA negotiators, as reported two days ago, has raised several questions, not least: why? For one, we know that former head Martin Ojul and the others were appointed by and closely connected to Vincent Otti. Yesterday, it was confirmed that Otti, the deputy to rebel leader Joseph Kony, was killed in October after a rift between the two leaders. In addition, Kony accused Ojul and others of profiting from the process, including receiving money from the Ugandan government. Kony seems to be trying to re-assert his control over the negotiating team and rebel force. The question then is what does this mean for the future of the peace process.

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The LRA are ready to resume stalled peace talks with the Ugandan government, the chief mediator and vice president of south Sudan said today. According to AFP, Riek Machar said that the negotiating team was ready to resume talks "as early as next Monday" if the Uganda government agreed. Machar also confirmed a change of leadership in the LRA negotiating team, with former head Martin Ojul replaced by legal adviser David Matsanga. Matsanga, in his first statement as head, said that the movement was "committed to bringing peace to northern Uganda; we have no alternative but to talk." This comes after LRA leader Joseph Kony spoke yesterday on MegaFM, saying that he is happy with the direction of peace talks. Kony also reportedly confirmed the death of his deputy, Vincent Otti.

In the second of an exclusive two-part analysis of the Juba peace talks, world-renowed scholars Ron Atkinson and Sverker Finnstrom consider the trajectory of the process in 2007 and likely futures in 2008. Next month, Duke University Press will be publishing Finnstrom (2008), 'Living with Bad Surroundings: War, History, and Everyday Moments in Northern Uganda'.

After months of stalled talks [in early 2007], a Goverment of Uganda (GoU) team led by President Museveni’s brother, Salim Saleh, held a series of unannounced meetings with a partial Lord's Resistance Army/Movement (LRA/M) delegation in Mombasa, from 31 March-6 April. Exactly what took place in these meetings is disputed and reactions to the meetings and what happened there among the broader LRA/M delegation and military leadership are divided (differences that might relate to the split between Kony and his top deputy, Vincent Otti, that has dominated recent discourse on the peace process). But, clearly, issues that had stalled the peace process for months were discussed – especially bringing others into the mediation process and addressing broader issues surrounding the war.

The week after the Mombasa meetings, UN Special Envoy Chissano met with the LRA/M leadership and announced that talks in Juba would soon resume. Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, and South Africa all sent representatives to these meetings, and would subsequently act as observers to the talks and provide military delegations to assist the CoH monitoring team. It was also announced that Chissano would co-mediate with Machar, that the LRA/M and GoU had extended the Cessation of Hostilities agreement, and that Ri-Kwangba in Western Equatoria would serve as the sole LRA assembly point, abandoning the insecure Owiny-ki-Bul site in the east – all called for by the rebels as necessary for returning to the talks.

Then, shortly after the talks officially resumed on 2 May, the parties signed item 2 on the agenda, on "comprehensive solutions" to ending the war. This addressed issues ranging from broad principles of inclusive and democratic governance to such specific LRA/M concerns as integrating the LRA into the army; assessing and remedying regional disparities in government institutions; assisting peoples' voluntary and secure return from the camps; and implementing (even "fast tracking") recovery programs for northern Uganda.

On 29 June, the two sides signed the even more wide-ranging third item on accountability and reconciliation. This identifies in principle a combination of local and national justice mechanisms – already in place or to be instituted – to promote reconciliation and address issues of accountability for wrongs committed by both rebel and state actors (with hints that this combination of mechanisms might satisfy the ICC).

Since July the talks have been on hold, although peace-building activities such as broad LRA/M consultations with war-affected communities have gone forward. Still, a final peace agreement has yet to be signed. Sticking points remain, especially the ICC warrants, the periodic beating of war drums by the GoU (including threats of military action if an arbitrary 31 January deadline for signing a final peace agreement is not met), and recent signs of internal divisions within the LRA/M, highlighted by the October disappearance from view of Vincent Otti.

While the indications of a divided LRA/M are troubling on their own, what appears to be behind this divide is even more worrisome.

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The Monitor is reporting that LRA leader Joseph Kony today dismissed his lead peace negotiator Martin Ojul with three others, accusing them of "making money from the peace talks." Kony allegedly announced his decision while addressing eleven of the negotiators via a satellite teleconference in Juba. Kony has apparently cleared the eight other negotiators to continue negotiations, but it is unclear how this move will affect the peace process. We'll have more on this in the coming days.

In the first of a two-part series on the Juba peace talks, world-renowned scholars, Ron Atkinson and Sverker Finnstrom provide an exclusive look at the process in its earliest stages in late 2005 to February 2007. In Part II tomorrow, they examine recent developments, new threats to the process and the likely future of the peace talks.

On 14 July 2006, peace talks began between the Government of Uganda (GoU) and the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army/Movement (LRA/M) to end the twenty-year northern Uganda war. The talks were mediated by the recently instituted, semi-autonomous Government of South Sudan (GoSS) and held in the GoSS capital, Juba. For the first time, direct talks between the GoU and an official LRA/M delegation were being held outside Uganda, with an outside mediator that had its own vested interest in successfully helping negotiate an end to the conflict. This led many, in and outside Uganda, to see the Juba talks as the best hope to end the war since it began.

The role of the GoSS in getting this process underway in late 2005 was crucial. Established in mid-2005 following the end of the long North-South Sudan civil war, the new government faced massive challenges, including the need to deal with the northern Uganda war and the threats to peace and stability resulting from the presence in South Sudan territory of at least 10,000 fighters from the Ugandan army and 4,000 or more LRA rebels.

By February 2006, the GoSS and LRA/M had reached a formal (if not yet public) accord. The agreement had three main provisions: the GoSS would serve as mediators in peace talks between the LRA/M and the GoU; the LRA would cease hostile activities inside South Sudan; and if the LRA/M could not accept these two provisions, then the GoSS would be forced to make them leave.

From late 2005 to July 2006, both the GoSS and LRA/M demonstrated an unwavering commitment to the peace process and presented – at least publicly – a unified front in the face of GoU and international skepticism, even hostility, towards the talks. With the talks' formal opening on 14 July, reactions in and outside Uganda ranged from high hopes to dismissive doubt. Hopes were reinforced when the talks relatively quickly produced a Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) Agreement on 26 August, the first formal bilateral accord of any sort signed by the LRA/M and GoU.

Despite many halts and stumbles over the following months, the talks moved forward. Then, for unclear reasons, Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir and GoSS President Salva Kiir each made bellicose statements about the LRA. In response, the LRA/M delegation leader, Martin Ojul, announced on 11 January 2007 (the day talks were to resume after the Christmas break) that the delegation was "not going back to Juba."

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The LRA negotiating team has blamed the Ugandan government for negative media reports, which the LRA says is a calculated attempt to undermine the peace talks. They have denied a recent report that an alleged $20,000 bribe given to several negotiators was causing internal disputes. In an interview with Voice of America, David Matsanga, technical and legal advisor for the LRA, said, "On the question of saying that the talks have collapsed is totally wrong. That is misconceived. We have not abandoned any talks. As we speak right now, we are in Juba on our way to meet our principals in Ri-Kwangba to brief them on the consultations that took place in Uganda." Matsanga also denied that the rebels have been involved in recent attacks in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

LRA leader Joseph Kony has reportedly postponed plans to bring 500 northern Ugandan leaders and civil society members to the LRA camp in the DR Congo this week for discussions on justice and reconciliation, agenda item 3 of the Juba peace talks. He reportedly told Gulu District Chairman Norbert Mao that he could not host the meeting until after he meets with the LRA peace delegation. The LRA delegation was scheduled to visit Kony in his Garamba camp after finishing consultations on justice and reconciliation three weeks ago, but delegation head Martin Ojul announced yesterday that the team was still in Juba, Sudan. Reports of a split between Kony and the LRA peace delegation and continued tensions in the LRA camp following the alleged killing of deputy commander Vincent Otti continue to make the LRA’s commitment to the Juba talks uncertain.

In a reported phone call to Gulu District Chairman Norbert Mao, LRA leader Joseph Kony has reacted angrily to the January 31st deadline set by President Museveni. "The January 31 deadline is unreasonable. These threats by Museveni undermine the peace process," Kony allegedly said. Kony insists he is committed to peace, but Museveni has warned that the Ugandan army is ready in the wake of uncertainty surrounding fighting within the rebel camp. "We want Kony and his remnants to come out peacefully. If they don't...the army is ready for everything," said the president. In the phone call, Kony allegedly said he was "not going to attack or declare war."

Speaking to Deutsche Presse-Agentur, northern Ugandan Catholic Archbishop John Baptist Odama expressed worry that northern Uganda might be sliding back into war. "Mistrust between the two sides is serious," Odama said. As the rebels become more elusive than ever, the talk and actions on the part of the government appear to point to a resumption of war. President Museveni has threatened military action after 31 January if the rebels do not show willingness to sign a final peace treaty and move from Garamba Park. Archbishop Odama said that when the cessation of hostilities agreement was signed over a year ago, it was "the happiest day of my life."

We overlooked this last week, but The East African reported that the LRA rebels have tabled a counter-proposal that extends the 31 January ultimatum to mid-March 2008. The Ugandan and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) governments have said they will take military action against the rebels if they have not left northeastern DRC by the end of this month. LRA spokesman Godfrey Ayo described the January deadline as an act of provocation that the rebel group would not respect. According to the LRA, the earliest the talks can resume is in the last week of January, leaving no time for arrival at a comprehensive peace agreement by the 31st. Ayo said that the negotiating team would return to Juba on January 5 and subsequently travel to Garamba Park to brief LRA leader Joseph Kony on the just concluded consultations. However, some have expressed concern that a recent raid of a Catholic mission in DRC shows the rebels are not committed to peace.

The Institute for War & Peace Reporting reports that steps are being taken to bring the LRA commanders to trial in Uganda rather than the International Criminal Court. "The plan is to ensure that these people are tried in Uganda, and not in The Hague-based war crimes tribunal," said a senior Ugandan judicial official. However, some legal experts say that the Ugandan judicial system is not capable of holding independent war crimes trials. IWPR reports that when talks resume in Juba later this month, this issue will indisputably loom over negotiations. The Ugandan government rejects the LRA claim that the indictments are jeopardising negotiations. "Our view is that ICC is...not a hindrance, but complementing the peace process," said Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda, the government's chief negotiator. When a peace deal is signed, Rugunda suggests that the ICC may be asked to lift its indictments in favour of a Ugandan tribunal. The LRA negotiators, meanwhile, still contend that as long as the indictments exist, no peace deal will be signed, nor will they come out of the bush.

In a meeting in Kampala over the weekend, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have again agreed to pressure the LRA rebels to leave Garamba National Park in northeastern DRC. "The UPDF offered to extend technical and other support to Congo," UPDF spokesman Capt. Paddy Ankunda said. Ankunda said the weekend meeting reviewed past resolutions and recommendations on how to deal with negative forces in the region. This highlights the uncertain future in 2008 of the Juba peace negotiations that have been underway now for eighteen months. After reported fighting within the rebel camp, there is certainly a need for LRA leader Joseph Kony to reaffirm commitment to the peace process and assembling under the cessation of hostilities agreement. However at the same time, the Ugandan government seems rash to insist on a military offensive if the rebels have not left Garamba by the end of this month. Abrupt action would likely undermine the peace process in which war survivors have placed their hope, while threatening to reignite active violence. We are suspicious too about Kony's intentions, but still believe strongly that the peace process must not be abandoned without clear evidence and just cause.

The Monitor printed an editorial today titled, "Let Peace Be a Reality This Year." They write, "By large, 2007 has been a successful year as far as peace is concerned particularly in northern Uganda. Peace talks have provided hope that at long last thousands of residents held up in camps could return home and rebuild their lives. And many indeed returned home. Despite such high hopes, uncertainty remains as long as a comprehensive peace deal is not agreed upon." Their editorial comes as Acholi religious leaders have urged LRA leader Joseph Kony to resume peace negotiations in Juba.