Reported plans between the defense ministers of Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to attack LRA rebels in Garamba Park is generating controversy among war survivors in northern Uganda. Survivors fear that a hasty attack could undermine the progress of peace talks and cause more violence. Yet in an interview with Voice of America, Ugandan army spokesman Major Felix Kulayigye says the rebels have nothing to fear if they really want a lasting peace in northern Uganda. Kulayigye said that the Congolese government is committed to getting rid of negative forces operating on their soil. "And indeed Congo promised that by the 31st of January, if the LRA is still in Congo, then they would take action against them," he said. He denied the plans between both governments would undermine the adjourned peace talks.

In a recent statement, President Museveni has questioned LRA leader Joseph Kony's commitment to peace talks and criticized him for killing his deputy, Vincent Otti. BBC News is reporting that a new diplomatic briefing has confirmed Otti's death. Museveni has also threatened military action against the rebels if they do not agree to a peace deal by the end of January. In an interview with Voice of America, Manasseh Wepundi, senior analyst with the Africa Policy Institute, said that recent discussions with neighboring countries on a coordinated response to armed groups operating in the Great Lakes region may have impacted Museveni's thinking. "The regional environment is changing very drastically in favor of President Museveni. That is a boost to his confidence about a military solution to the entire conflict," Wepundi said. Yet, many in northern Uganda say that "military solutions" over two decades have only intensified fighting and led to more displacement. Given all the progress of the Juba peace process, why revert to military rhetoric and rigid ultimatums? There is indisputably a role for benchmarks to move the negotiations along, but inflexible timelines risk derailing the whole process and plunging northern Uganda back into war.

President Museveni offered cautious and conditional support for the Juba peace talks while speaking to northern Ugandan leaders at a peace and reconciliation conference in Gulu yesterday. He said that even though northern leaders had convinced him to engage in the peace talks, they should “not use the word ‘irreversible’ to describe the peace talks” and warned that Kony would face military operations if he chose to renew fighting. His comments came after we reported earlier today that he had reiterated a January 31 deadline for Kony to sign a peace agreement. Read more at The New Vision.

Speaking at the same conference this week, Acholi traditional leader Rwot Acana II said that Kony had called him last Saturday to express his commitment to the peace talks. He also urged President Museveni to establish a truth and reconciliation commission.

President Museveni, meeting with the LRA negotiating team on Tuesday, said that LRA leader Joseph Kony has until January 31, 2008 to conclude a peace agreement or face regional military action. The LRA team reportedly asked for that deadline to be extended to March 15, but the President rejected it. He did however say that he could possibly extend it if talks resume by January 10 as hoped. The UN Special Envoy, Joaquim Chissano, has said that President Museveni is flexible on the deadline if peace talks are still making progress. We reported on Tuesday that Museveni and his Congolese counterpart are "willing to shelve plans" for the military offensive to allow peace talks to succeed. Still, Museveni was reportedly firm on the deadline in the meeting, expressing concern that Kony is not committed to the peace process. At the same time, the President offered to ask the UN Security Council to suspend the ICC arrest warrants for the top LRA leaders if this would give Kony confidence to sign the final deal.

Today’s New Vision reports that President Museveni of Uganda and President Kabila of the DR Congo are willing to shelve plans for a joint military operation against the LRA if they do not leave Congolese territory by January 31st in order to enable peace talks to continue. The announcement came during a conference on peace and reconciliation in Gulu, at which UN special envoy Joaquim Chissano affirmed that President Museveni remains committed to the Juba talks. Chissano also highlighted the importance of national reconciliation in Uganda and the role of women as peacebuilders. Read more at The New Vision.

Meanwhile, Riek Machar, chief mediator for the Juba talks, expressed the southern Sudanese government’s willingness to continue brokering the negotiations. He was speaking at a conference for LRA-affected communities in southern Sudan. Local leaders at the conference stressed that efforts to rebuild areas affected by the LRA conflict should include Sudanese communities as well as Ugandan ones. Machar said that over 500 Sudanese had been killed and 126 abducted by the LRA, which has been active in southern Sudan for over a decade. Read more at The Sudan Tribune.

A meeting between Ugandan and Congolese officials last week over border, oil and security issues concluded with a revived determination to launch a joint military offensive against LRA leader Joseph Kony if LRA rebels do not leave their bases in the DR Congo by the end of next month. On Saturday Uganda’s Defense Minister Crispus Kiyonga said, "We did not go into further details but that was the bottom-line; that Kony either comes and we conclude the talks or the Congolese authorise us to go after him." Read more at The Monitor and The New Vision.

Two weeks ago a similar agreement was approved during a regional security meeting convened by the US Secretary of State. However, local civil society (and our latest op/ed) have warned that irresponsible military rhetoric or abrupt military action could undermine the fragile Juba peace talks.

The UN Special Envoy for the Juba peace process, Joaquim Chissano, has returned to Kampala to hold a series of discussions aimed at resumed negotiations toward a final agreement. Chissano will meet with Government officials as well as regional leaders, and then civil society representatives and the rebel leadership. His diplomacy comes at a critical time with new pressures on the peace process, namely upheaval in the rebel camp and the threat of a regional military offensive in late January. Read more at the UN News Service.

After 40 days of traversing the country "consulting" with civil society about the Juba peace talks, the LRA negotiating team is seeking to meet with President Museveni again. "We want to meet President Museveni and thank him for allowing us to consult in Uganda," said LRA legal adviser Crispus Ayena Odong. Yet, at the same time, members of the LRA team and civil society have been very critical of President Museveni for agreeing to a new deadline on ongoing peace talks. Meeting last week, regional leaders including Museveni agreed that military action will be taken against the LRA if negotiations have not concluded by January 31, 2008 and the rebels remain in eastern Congo. In a consultation between the negotiating team and civil society organizations in Kampala today, many identified this as the greatest threat to the peace process, along with the uncertain commitment of rebel leader Joseph Kony. A few months ago, we argued that abrupt military action would undermine the peace talks and run a high risk of rekindling violence.

The Monitor is reporting that more defections within the LRA rebel ranks are expected, caused by the alleged split between LRA leader Joseph Kony and his deputy Vincent Otti. During a press conference in Gulu on Monday, Gulu RDC Walter Ochora reported this on intelligence from recently defected rebels. "The killing of LRA's second in command Vincent Otti on orders of his chairman Joseph Kony sent shock waves within the camps of the LRA. A good number of them have escaped. I am about to go back to eastern Congo to lead more LRA fighters to the UN peacekeeping mission," Ochora said. The New Vision also reports that the UN peacekeeping force in Congo (MONUC) has set up three reception centres in the eastern Congo towns of Dungu, Bunia and Goma to receive LRA returnees.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the UN Security Council have agreed to extend the mandate of Joaquim Chissano, Special Envoy for the LRA-affected areas, through 31 December 2008. Also, Chissano's office will be upgraded from a temporary liaison office to a special political mission. The former president of Mozambique, Chissano has played a crucial role in progress made at the Juba peace talks.

In his letter to the Council the Secretary-General said the peace process “has been proceeding steadily and remains on track under the facilitation efforts” of Chissano, as well as the mediation of the Government of Southern Sudan and the support of the DRC, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania. Read more at UN News.

Ugandan officials announced that they will meet with Congolese officials tomorrow to discuss efforts to address the LRA forces and other rebels based in eastern DR Congo, border oil deposits and other issues. They will meet under the auspices of the Joint Permanent Commission, created in 1986 but dormant since 1997 due to frosty relations between the two countries. The meeting will follow on a regional security meeting last week that Ugandan and DR Congo attended with other Great Lakes countries in which the DR Congo vowed to move against the LRA if they did leave the country by the end of next month. Read more at The Monitor.

As we reported last week, the Tripartite Plus Joint Commission (Burundi, DRC, Uganda, Rwanda) reaffirmed last week that military action will be taken against the LRA if the Juba peace process has not concluded successfully by January 31, 2008 and the rebels have not crossed back into Sudan to assemble in Ri-Kwangba. Read the highlights of the Tripartite meetings here. Speaking last week at Makerere University, lead Government negotiator Ruhakana Rugunda said that LRA leader Joseph Kony and his commanders should leave Garamba Park in DRC before Juba peace talks resume next year. "The fact that the LRA have not moved to Ri-Kwangba in South Sudan is a violation of the agreement. What are they doing in Garamba? Let us simplify life. Tell Kony and the LRA to assemble in Ri-Kwangba before the talks resume. We shall supply food there," Rugunda said. Earlier, Rugunda had lauded Martin Ojul, the leader of the LRA delegation and his peace team for their ongoing "productive" consultations in the country. Read more at The New Vision.

The LRA negotiating team announced yesterday that it has completed its one-month long consultations throughout Uganda on agenda item #3, accountability and reconciliation. "We have finished with our consultations in Uganda. We had our last consultation meeting here in Masindi yesterday (Saturday)," lead negotiator Martin Ojul said. "Wherever we have gone for consultations, people are seeing ICC as the stumbling block to the peace process...They want the indicted commanders to be tried using the traditional mechanisms." Throughout the consultations, the LRA team has increasingly distanced itself from the rebel military operations, presenting itself as representing the grievances of northern Ugandans. This has been further displayed by their inclusion of agenda item #2 (comprehensive solutions to the war) in these consultations though they were supposed to be limited to agenda item #3. From our reports however, northern Ugandans have been clear with the LRA team: they want them to negotiate a final agreement that ends this war and then they themselves will address the deeper grievances and inequalities. The LRA negotiators' efforts to establish peace are commendable, but their claim to speak for war survivors is insulting. Now with consultations finished, the team can best help northern Uganda by returning expeditiously to the negotiating table and moving toward a signed final agreement.

The Sunday Vision has an exclusive interview with Sunday Otto, one of the LRA commanders who was present during the alleged execution of Vincent Otti and has recently defected from the rebel ranks. Otto says that Otti was killed on 2 October with Lt. Col. Ben Accelam and Capt. Alfred Otim. Kony ordered the execution, but was allegedly not present. When he returned, Otto says that he called all his officers and instructed them not to bury the bodies for three days. In the interview, Otto says that Kony's primary concern has always been for his personal safety and that Otti was "the man behind the peace talks." Read the full interview transcript here.

A high-level meeting focused on security issues in the Great Lakes region concluded with a vow that the DR Congo will act to remove LRA rebels from its territory by January 31st, 2008 if they have not left voluntarily by then. It urged the LRA to voluntarily move across the border to Ri-kwangba in southern Sudan before the end of the deadline. January 31st is also when the extension of the cessation of hostilities agreement between the Ugandan government and LRA expires. The Tripartite Plus meeting, convened by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, was tasked with addressing the “negative forces” in the eastern DR Congo, including the LRA and renegade Congolese commander Laurent Nkunda. Read more at The New Vision.

In September 2007 the Congolese and Ugandan governments came to a similar agreement to push the LRA out of the DR Congo if they did not leave voluntarily. Though no immediate action was taken, the agreement sparked fears that the governments would undermine the Juba peace talks by pursuing a “military solution” to the LRA. This week’s declaration, which has the implicit support of the US government, is likely to rekindle those fears with the looming prospect of a hard deadline for the peace talks. However, last week the US government’s top Africa diplomat said that the Juba talks are “critically important” and vowed continued US support for the process, making it difficult to decipher the intentions of the US and regional governments.

The New Vision reports that the LRA commanders who defected from the rebels' hideout in Garamba have been granted amnesty by the Ugandan government. Sunday Otto, Vincent Okema, George Okello and Richard Odongo-Kau arrived in Uganda on December 1, flown in by UN peacekeepers in Congo. Meanwhile, the LRA negotiating team held one of its final consultations in Kampala. Participants told the LRA team to pursue solutions to the original causes of the rebellion and not adopt other issues they have found along the way during the talks. Erute North MP Gutumoi Angiro asked the parties to conclude the agreement in January and attend the commemoration of the Barlonyo massacre on February 21. Speaking yesterday on the radio, the government chief negotiator Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda said that the peace talks will continue despite reports about LRA deputy commander Vincent Otti's death.

UN peacekeepers in eastern DR Congo say that they are in dialogue with rebels from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) who want to engage in peace talks with the Ugandan government. Ugandan Internal Affairs Minister Ruhakana Rugunda, head of the government’s delegation to the Juba peace talks, embraced the effort, saying, "Ending conflict peacefully is a favoured method of this government and if the ADF wants to talk peace they are welcome." Read more at The Monitor.

The ADF, a Ugandan rebel group which was most active from 1995 to 2002, is currently based in eastern DR Congo. Recent reports have indicated that it has been working closely with the National Army for the Liberation of Uganda (NALU), another Congo-based Ugandan rebel group. There have also been reports that it is working with Congolese armed groups and even the LRA, and many of its members are now thought to be Congolese. Estimated to be less than 1,000 strong, the ADF’s primary aim today appears to be the lucrative exploitation of natural resources in the DR Congo.

Speaking on Voice of America, LRA technical advisor David Matsanga said that the LRA are winding down their consultations ahead of the next round of negotiations with the Ugandan government. "Our consultations have gone on very, very well. We have covered three quarters of the country, we are remained with three other consultations..." Matsanga said. "People are looking for another alternative means of justice that would bring long lasting peace to the region and remove the conflict once and for all. So, the message has been very clear, the people of Uganda have said they are ready to forgive to forget and reconcile with anybody who has actually been involved in the conflict," he said. However, The New Vision reports that local government and civil leaders at the most recent consultation in the Makasa region became hostile to the LRA negotiating team, calling them "opportunists" and "money schemers."