The Uganda Human Development Report released yesterday says that Kitgum district has the lowest standard of living, followed by Gulu district - both in the war-affected region. Karamoja region has the highest poverty index at 65.3, while Kampala (the capital) has the lowest poverty index at 9.6. Kitgum also has the lowest life expectancy of 29 years, followed by Gulu at 30 years. Northern Uganda also has the lowest literacy rate at 56%. This highlights the gross regional inequalities that have resulted after two decades of war and displacement in the north. Read more at The New Vision.

Our partner (and soon successor) campaign, Resolve Uganda, has announced the 2008 Lobby Day for Northern Uganda! This will be the best chance ever for Americans to make sure their voices are being heard by policymakers and to help achieve lasting peace for the people of northern Uganda. The event, titled "Be a Piece of the Peace: Lobby Day for Northern Uganda," will take place 24-26 February 2008 in Washington D.C. It will include lobbying meetings, panel discussions, film screenings, trainings and much more! Click here to sign up.

Human rights group Amnesty International today accused the Ugandan judicial system of failing to act against the widespread rape and sexual abuse of women in the war-affected northern region. A new report, entitled "Uganda: Double Traumatized," says that women victims of gender-based violence in northern Uganda face "insurmountable difficulties in trying to ensure that perpetrators are brought to justice." These include community stimatization, under-staffed police posts, document fees, a lack of government medical doctors (only 8 in Acholi in Lango) to verify injury, and weak judicial institutions. Amnesty's report further says that government officials and military officers are among those responsible for the abuse. "The utter lack of justice faced by women and girls who are the victims of sexual violence requires the immediate attention of the Ugandan government and the international community," said Godfrey Odongo, Amnesty's researcher in Kampala. "The justice system in northern Uganda ignores, denies, and tacitly condones violence against women and girls and protects suspected perpetrators," the report concludes. Read the full report here.

The Uganda Joint Christian Council (UJCC) has expressed fear that the rifts within the LRA ranks could weaken the search for peace in northern Uganda. In a joint statement released yesterday, the Christian leaders appealed to the rebel leadership to quickly resolve the rift, if the peace process was to progress and end smoothly. The council requested Kony to clear rumours that he had killed Otti. The UJCC, however, commended the Government and the LRA for the considerable progress made at the talks. The council also asked the Government to refrain from its planned joint offensive against the negative forces in the DRC, arguing that the attack could undermine the talks. Read more at The New Vision.

In this week's Wednesday look at Uganda's neighbors, we focus on the worsening humanitarian crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Reuters AlertNet reports, "Refugee camps are nothing new in DRC where fighting has forced more than 370,000 people from their homes in the eastern North Kivu province this year alone. Now thousands of the capital's 8 million inhabitants are under threat from bad weather after heavy downpours razed hundreds of homes and killed more than 30 people in 24 hours." UN IRIN reports that the "blood keeps on flowing" as government troops and rebels loyal to General Laurent Nkunda continue fighting. A senior UN envoy has called on parties in the country's troubled North Kivu province to avoid any actions that could harm the already beleaguered civilian population.

A Ugandan official is reportedly traveling to the DR Congo to deliver pardons from President Museveni to two LRA commanders who are negotiating the surrender of an estimated 300 LRA rebels. The group is believed to have defected from LRA’s base camp in eastern DR Congo after an internal battle that has left the fate of LRA second-in-command Vincent Otti unknown. The two commanders, who are also negotiating with UN peacekeepers in the DR Congo, have demanded they be given presidential pardons before they allow the group to surrender. They surrendered in 2003 and received amnesty, but later rejoined the LRA. Read more at The Monitor.

The LRA team currently conducting consultations on justice and reconciliation within Uganda announced today that it will visit LRA leader Joseph Kony within two weeks to find out whether LRA commander Vincent Otti is alive or dead. Controversy over Otti’s fate, with Kony saying he is under house arrest for treason and others claiming he was killed, has partially overshadowed the LRA delegation’s historic consultations over the past several weeks. The LRA team today met with religious officials from the Uganda Joint Christian Council today in Kampala, and will finish consultations on December 5. Peace talks are scheduled to resume on December 6. Read more at The New Vision.

The Independent reports that while President Museveni is reveling in successfully hosting the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, an end to the horrific 21-year war in northern Uganda is not guaranteed. The LRA may be "running out of steam," but war survivors in displacement camps remain very suspicious. The article reads, "Although hardly any attacks have been reported for more than a year, most [Acholi] people choose to remain, corralled in 26 vast camps packed with traditional round thatched huts as they have done for more than a decade." The article concludes that the biggest threat to achieving peace is "now not in Uganda but in Sudan." Many fear the collapse of the peace agreement in southern Sudan, which could lead Khartoum to renew its support for the LRA.

As reported last week, an estimated 300 people from within the LRA ranks have reportedly defected, including several senior-level commanders and their family members. Voice of America reports that this group is negotiating their return to Uganda with the UN peacekeeping force in Congo. UN sources said they were ready to receive the group, however two of the rebel leaders said they will not leave their from undisclosed location until they see a pardon from President Museveni.

The LRA negotiating team is calling on Queen Elizabeth II to convince President Museveni to work with them to find a lasting peace for northern Uganda. Speaking on Voice of America, LRA technical adviser David Matsanga said that the President has often reneged on his previous promises of finding a peaceful end to the 21-year rebel insurgency. He also accused the President of failing to equitably distribute the wealth of the nation, which has led to lack of development in northern Uganda. Matsanga said the LRA high command is committed to finding a lasting peace through the ongoing negotiations.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) yesterday reiterated the court’s position that LRA commanders indicted in 2005 be arrested and put to trial. Deputy prosecutor Fatou Bensouda said, “It is time to marginalise, isolate and arrest individuals sought by the court. The international community must not support them.” Bensouda also said that it would be a mistake to withdraw the arrest warrants because of the ongoing Juba peace talks between the LRA and Ugandan government. Read more at The New Vision.

However, many members of Ugandan civil society, as well as the LRA and Ugandan government, continue to argue that domestic justice and reconciliation processes can be a viable alternative to trying indicted leaders at the ICC. A LRA delegation is currently touring northern Uganda to consult with war-affected communities on how to best pursue justice and reconciliation. Earlier this week a cultural leader from the Teso region of northern Uganda told the LRA delegation that, “The most important element in the Teso traditional justice is compensation of the aggrieved parties because it acts as a binding factor and deterrent tool against such a crime.” He also said that the people of Teso were willing to forgive LRA leaders if children abducted from their communities and forced to fight for the LRA were released. Read more at The New Vision.

Recent studies have shown that peace, return to home communities, viable livelihoods and education are the overwhelming priorities of northern Ugandans, and that many fear that ICC rigidity may be hurting chances to secure a peace deal. Also, a majority of northern Ugandans view truth-telling, compensation, a written historical record of wrongdoings and accountability of all parties guilty of crimes during the conflict as the most important elements of transitional justice.

The New Vision reports that three defected LRA fighters have said that deputy LRA commander Vincent Otti is dead. Senior-level rebel commanders Otto Sunday, Richard Okema and Odong-kau, calling from their hide-out in Congo, said the second-in-command was killed on instructions of LRA leader Joseph Kony at 10:00am on October 2, together with many others. They named other commanders killed as Ben Accelam, Otim ‘Record’ and Swaib Adjumani. The three, who have contacted the UN mission in Congo in the past days with a view to surrender, said their group (estimated by the UPDF as 300) had fled after the killings. They described the way Otti was murdered as "too horrific to discuss on phone." The commanders, they said, were killed by firing squad and their bodies were left unburied for three days "to strengthen Kony’s spirit." Some analysts believe the rebel group may be disintegrating, though Kony still retains a not insignificant force. Moreover, we cannot ignore that the people of northern Uganda today face a multitude of security threats that have developed beyond the rebel group.

This week's Wednesday regional update focuses on the political situation in southern Sudan. The Washington Post reports that South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, upon returning from visiting Washington, said this week that the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) would "never, ever take people to war again." He said that the party remains committed to the peace agreement signed in 2005. "However," Kiir said, "we reserve the right to self-defense should we be attacked." In recent months, tensions have been rising over the failed implementation of the agreement, especially the failed withdrawal of government troops from the oil-rich Abyei region. In a speech over the weekend, Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir stoked the crisis by calling on militia forces that fought against the south and stand accused of human rights abuses in Darfur to "open training camps and to gather mujaheddin not for the sake of war but to be ready for anything." Regional leaders are already planning a summit to deal with these tensions, led by Kenyan envoy and former president Daniel arap Moi.

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The LRA delegation to the Juba peace talks continued its consultations and confidence-building with northern Ugandans this week with a visit to Teso region. They visited a mass grave for victims of the LRA’s 2003 offensive into Teso, and apologized for crimes committed there. One local official urged the rebels to make progress at the Juba peace talks, saying, “Teso people are tired of staying in camps and are still worried about the LRA. They will only be relieved the day the rebels come out of the bush.” When asked to press for the release of children abducted by the rebels, LRA spokesman Martin Ojul advised the community that such a move could derail the peace process. Read more at The New Vision.

A member of the LRA delegation has said that the negotiators will abandon rebel leader Joseph Kony if he refuses to sign a final peace deal in February 2008. "You people should not be worried that the peace talks will delay," said James Obita during the LRA's continued consultations in northern Uganda. "We are optimistic that the final signing of a comprehensive peace agreement will be in February. You should have hope for long lasting peace." According to Obita though, Kony is asking for northerners' forgiveness and will accept punishment through traditional means for war crimes. Meanwhile, the LRA spokesman said the reports of a "mass defection" of rebels is mistaken because the group of fighters had been expelled from the movement. "We wouldn't call it an LRA surrender, because they were no longer with the movement," Godfrey Ayoo told Reuters. Ayoo has further accused the Ugandan government of "working with insiders" to destabilize the rebel group.

As negotiations between the Ugandan government and rebel LRA aimed at ending more than 20 years of civil war continue, NGOs from around the world are calling on all regional and international stakeholders to see the peace process through to a successful conclusion. "The people of northern Uganda and throughout the region have suffered for too long," says a statement released last week by more than forty-five humanitarian, faith-based and civil society organizations.

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Thirteen Italian non-governmental organizations have released a statement calling on the political authorities and mass media who will attend the Commonwealth Heads of Governments Summit in Kampala, from November 23rd to 25th, to visit northern Uganda to see for themselves the tragic living conditions there. They write, "To understand these needs it is necessary, for those attending the Commonwealth meeting, to leave the capital Kampala and go into Northern and Eastern Uganda, to meet the people and to see with their own eyes those lands which in the last month have also been affected by floods. Peace needs thousands of steps, even outside the capital."

The Sunday Vision reports that thirty LRA rebels, including three commanders, have defected in what might be a sign that the force has fractured following internal feuds. Diplomatic sources have said the group likely includes Okema, Odong-kau, Pak-Pala and Otto, the rebel commanders who LRA chief Joseph Kony accused earlier this month of treachery. The rebels reportedly made contact with UN forces in Congo last Thursday and are expected to surrender to them. If true, this would be the first mass defection in the history of the rebel force. Since reports of fighting between LRA leaders Kony and Vincent Otti, there has been speculation of fractures within the rebel camp. The implications for rebel commitment to the negotiations remains unknown, but such volatility has spelled disaster in past peace initiatives. This combined with the Government's likely deadline of 31 January upon which it will push regional military action, threatens to undermine the historic progress made in Juba. Nevertheless, from another perspective, maybe the very purpose of the peace process is to provide space for the rebel group to disintegrate (or demobilize), while addressing deeper politico-social inequalities.

The New Vision reported over the weekend that divisions have emerged in the LRA negotiating team. The chairman, Martin Ojul, is advocating for the suspension of the country-wide consultations on the peace talks, due to lack of funds. Ojul, after the completion of consultations in Gulu, Pader, Kitgum and Amuru districts, went to Kampala to see his family and has not yet rejoined the peace team. However, legal advisor, Crispus Ayena Odongo, who is now heading the delegation, said with or without money, the team would carry on with the consultation.

Ugandan rebels said on Saturday that they had apologized to survivors of the Barlonyo massacre in which their fighters killed some 400 civilians three years ago. Santa Okot of the LRA said the rebels toured the camp in Uganda's Lira district Friday and apologized to widows and orphans of the February 2004 killings. The attack was one of the country's deadliest in years. The visit is part of ongoing consultations by the LRA with the public and leaders in northern Uganda on peace talks with the government. Read more at AFP.

Adrian Bradbury, founder of GuluWalk, had an Op/Ed over the weekend in Nova Scotia's The Chronicle Herald, titled "Quiet diplomacy or lost opportunity?" Bradbury writes, "Canada is the world’s largest financial contributor to the peace process in what region? In fact, there will only be a handful of Canadians who can tell you that all of this support on the ground, and the public silence that seems to go hand-in-hand, is coming from northern Uganda...That’s why Canada’s voice must be heard on the international stage, where we are recognized as a non-partisan leader in peace-building and human security. Shying away from a leading public role in this peace process raises the question of whether Canada is once again keeping quiet and remaining in the shadows for the benefit of our relationship with our neighbours to the south." Read the full Op/Ed here.

This week we return to our Thursday update on what’s happening in Uganda outside of the north.

Karamoja: October updates from the UN show that cattle raiding in Uganda’s northeast Karamoja region is at its highest levels since March 2007, with nearly 20 attempted raids reported. Armed civilians also continue to resist efforts by the Ugandan military to disarm them. Meanwhile, fear of Karamojong attacks continues to be one of the primary reasons tens of thousands of civilians in the Teso region of northern Uganda remain displaced.

West Nile: This week members of the LRA delegation conducting consultations on justice and reconciliation visited Uganda’s northwestern region of West Nile. "We ask for forgiveness and I can assure you that we are ready to be punished not by the ICC but through mato-oput [Acholi traditional justice system]." West Nile leaders emphasized the importance of forgiveness but also stressed that victims be compensated.

CHOGM: Preparations for next week’s historic Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Uganda have reached a frantic pitch in Uganda. Let’s hope that the international spotlight does not simply ignore the hopes for and challenges to peace and recovery in northern Uganda.

The LRA delegation conducting consultations on justice and reconciliation in northern Uganda announced today that they will be visiting Lango region this weekend. On Saturday they plan on traveling to Barlonyo, where LRA rebels massacred approximately 400 civilians in February 2004. Lira MP Rebecca Atengo said "The Barlonyo attack was terrible. The remains of the dead were buried in mass graves. It's going to be hard to control the emotions of the victims and survivors. We must tell the truth as we head for reconciliation." Read more at The Monitor.

The South African-based Institute for Security Studies has published a report that Peter Quaranto (that's me) authored, titled "Emerging Threats to Peace in Northern Uganda." I write, "Ongoing peace negotiations between the Government of Uganda and rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) have defied a two-decade history of failed peace initiatives...In the coming months, the Juba peace process faces its greatest test: can it ultimately escape a history of militarization, rebel volatility and regional instability? All three of these emerging threats are recurring spoilers; they are the very problems that have undermined past peace initiatives throughout the conflict’s two-decade history. Given the chance again, they will do the same." These three threats are: (1) escalating plans for regional military action in January 2008 if talks remain stalled; (2) volatility and fractures within the rebel ranks; (3) deterioration of the fragile peace agreement in southern Sudan.

The report concludes, "The ultimate goal is giving war-affected communities the space and time they need to consider their priorities and elicit creative solutions. Rash regional military action and rebel intransigence constrain that space and limit that time. Worst of all, they make peace in northern Uganda far more elusive. For if the emerging threats prevail, the Juba process will not overcome, but instead, add to the long history of broken peace initiatives and protracted violence. That is a history that Africa, let alone northern Uganda, is ready to move beyond." Access the full situation report here.

After a week's hiatus, we return to our Wednesday updates on happenings in northern Uganda's two main neighbors: southern Sudan & eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Here are a few key news stories from the last week:

"South Sudan could secede if Abyei unresolved" (Reuters): South Sudan could unilaterally split from the north because of a dispute over the oil-rich region of Abyei in Africa's largest country, leading Islamist opposition party leader Hassan al-Turabi said on Sunday.

"North-south Sudan talks fail to reconcile ex-foes" (Reuters): Discussions between the southern Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and northern National Congress Party (NCP) have reached a deadlock, largely over the status of the oil-rich Abyei region.

"Rwandan rebels in Congo vow to resist disarmament" (Reuters):

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UN special envoy to LRA-affected areas Pres. Joaquim Chissano briefed the UN Security Council yesterday on progress at the Juba peace talks. Pres. Chissano, the former president of Mozambique, last briefed the Council in March 2007. After yesterday’s briefing the Council issued a "press statement" supporting Pres. Chissano’s mandate, renewing its call for a negotiated solution to the conflict and urging that those responsible for serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law be brought to justice. The statement also called for sustained progress in improving the humanitarian situation in northern Uganda. Read more at UN News.

However, some advocates and UN member states were hoping that the Council would make a more vocal and meaningful gesture in support of Pres. Chissano’s efforts and the Juba peace talks by issuing a Security Council Presidential Statement, as it did when Pres. Chissano visited New York in March 2007.

The latest UN humanitarian reporting from October shows that the complex movements of IDPs to and between original displacement camps, satellite camps and their villages of origin differ highly by region. In Lango, over 95% of IDPs have returned to their homes. However, in Acholi a majority of people remain in the original camps, while less than 5% have returned to their villages. In Teso, over 75% of IDPs remain in camps, most likely due to fear from Karamojong attacks. Tens of thousands of northern Ugandans displaced outside the region also are beginning to return home. Monitoring of population movements has found that many vulnerable persons, such as those with disabilities and school-attending children, are staying behind in IDP camps.

Karamojong cattle raids are also at their highest level of recent months, while clashes between armed Karamojong civilians and the Ugandan soldiers attempting to disarm them continue.

The LRA delegation conducting consultations on justice and reconciliation and the Juba peace talks on Tuesday asked communities in Uganda’s West Nile region to forgive LRA crimes committed there. A member from the delegation said, "We ask for forgiveness and I can assure you that we are ready to be punished not by the ICC but through mato-oput [Acholi traditional justice system]." West Nile leaders emphasized the importance of forgiveness but also stressed that victims be compensated. In addition to the LRA conflict, the West Nile region is also in the process of rebuilding and reconciling after a 2002 peace agreement between the Ugandan government and the West Nile rebels ended decades of fighting and displacement. Read more at The Monitor.

Three ex-LRA rebels, including former high-level commander Alfred Onen Kamdalu, have been jailed on charges of robbing a civilian in Apac district last month. Kamdalu and the two other ex-combatants have been attached to the Ugandan military since leaving the LRA. They are now awaiting further trial at Gulu Central Prison. Their case demonstrates the challenges of fully integrating ex-LRA combatants into northern Ugandan society. Read more at AllAfrica.com.

Two Ugandan bishops have called on LRA leader Joseph Kony to release his deputy Vincent Otti from captivity as a good will gesture for the Juba peace talks. Earlier this week Kony claimed that he had imprisoned Otti after he and five other LRA commanders plotted to overthrow him. Archbishop John Baptist Odama of Gulu Archdiocese said, "I call upon Kony to reconcile with his deputy to make sure efforts of peace go ahead. Kony should give a second chance. Every human problem can be solved. Let the two talk." Otti’s ultimate fate – and the effect the leadership split will have on the peace talks – still remains an unknown. Read more at The Monitor.

The UN refugee agency and ACTED, an international NGO, have decided to suspend road rehabilitation projects in Amuru district in northern Uganda due to insecurity. 2 national staff of ACTED were killed on November 1st by suspected bandits. Read more at The New Vision.

The leader of the LRA delegation, Martin Ojul, has the full backing of rebel leader Joseph Kony, the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Dr. Stephen Kagoda, assured the public yesterday. Kagoda was reacting to fears that the LRA peace team, which is holding consultations on accountability and reconciliation in the north, did not have the blessings of Kony. "The LRA has remained in close contact with us over this matter and we believe that the people negotiating with the Government have the mandate." However, he added that the rift between Kony and his commanders posed a challenge in the peace talks. Read more at The New Vision.

Speaking to Voice of America, the LRA technical adviser David Matsanga has reiterated that the ICC arrest warrants against its top leadership are the main obstacle to finding a lasting peace to the northern Uganda conflict. The rebels also blame Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the chief prosecutor of the ICC of bias and of being involved in a calculated attempt to derail the adjourned peace talks. "We want to make it very clear that the position of the Lord’s Resistance Army on the question of the ICC is that it was a flawed process. It was a flawed process in that the prosecutor only investigated one side; he did not investigate all the sides that were involved in the conflict...Ugandans are saying no, this peace process cannot be confused. We want the peace process to be concluded," Matsanga said.

The new Resolve Uganda web site is finally up and functional! In the coming days, we'll be redirecting this site to Resolve's Uganda Conflict Watch blog. It's sad to see Uganda-CAN go after almost three years, but I promise you that we'll be providing the same quality of news & analysis at Resolve Uganda. The whole writer's gang is making the move: myself, Paul, Kenny, Stephen, Michael, Alison...and we hope you'll join us! Thanks for your loyalty and support, and most of all, your resolve for peace in northern Uganda.

The Sunday Vision reports that at least four other LRA commanders, who have been discharged from the rebel army, are missing. LRA leader Joseph Kony told Gulu District chairman Norbert Mao on Thursday by satellite phone that he had expelled five commanders, who he accused of plotting to kill him. Only one, Patrick Makasi, has since surfaced and surrendered to UN forces in Congo. The fate of the other four, identified by Kony as (Sunday) Otto, (Richard) Odong-Kau, Okema and Pak-Pala, is unknown. Meanwhile, the office of the chief mediator, Dr. Riek Machar, has been asked to contact the LRA and demand to see deputy commander Vincent Otti before proceeding with the consultation.

The LRA begin their second consultation in northern Uganda today in Adjumani, the community of the Madi People in Uganda’s West Nile region. In the first round, the LRA delegation met with religious and local leaders, women’s groups, and victims from the Acholi people. Kenneth Oketta, the prime minister of the Acholi Cultural Institution, spoke on Voice of America about the candid exchanges at these meetings. "The reaction is positive and full of excitement. It went on very smoothly and frankly, and there was high participation by the people invited," Oketta said. Oketta said some of the questioning suggested the people were skeptical of the LRA but still are willing to believe their sincerity. "They are willing to forgive them because they are desperate, and they have learned that during the last one year, the success for peace is the LRA because when they stopped fighting after signing the cessation of hostilities, there has been a lot of peace and people are home without any arrangement at all either from government or from the army of Uganda." During consultations last week, the LRA delegation reportedly gave money to a man whose right hand was chopped off by the rebels in 1989.

The leader of the LRA peace delegation, Martin Ojul, failed on Wednesday to locate his father's home in Koch-Goma, Amuru district, which he visited for the first time in 22 years. Clad in a blue-jean suit, Ojul admitted he was lost and could not even point at the direction of his ancestral home. Instead, Ojul found an internally-displaced people's camp. Ojul urged the people to move out of the camps and reconstruct their homes so that in future, their children would not end up forgetting their ancestral homes. Ojul assured the community that he would not let Joseph Kony to go back to war. Read more at The New Vision.

As rumors that LRA deputy Vincent Otti has been killed continue to swirl, LRA leader Joseph Kony declared today that Otti is alive but under house arrest. Norbert Mao, Gulu district chairman, reported that LRA leader Joseph Kony informed him via satellite phone that Otti and five other LRA commanders were plotting to overthrow him, allegedly with the support of the Ugandan government. Kony also said that one of the commanders escaped while the other four were discharged. He refused to let Mao speak with Otti personally, saying that Otti remains imprisoned within the LRA camp and is awaiting trial.

Mao also said, “(Kony) said the talks should continue and he fully trusted his peace team. He would only allow his trusted officers to speak for him. The delegation’s mission, he said, was not to explain the internal affairs of the LRA but to consult on the peace process.” Read more at The New Vision.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) and South Sudan government have announced separately that they will conduct investigations into the fate of LRA deputy Vincent Otti, rumored to have been killed last month. A team for the South Sudan government is reportedly headed to the Sudan-Congo border to determine Otti’s fate. In another initiative, ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo announced that the court will consult with regional governments and other authorities on what has become of Otti. The ICC issued arrest warrants for five LRA commanders in 2005, including Vincent Otti and LRA leader Joseph Kony. Read more at The Monitor.

The monitoring team set up to oversee the cessation of hostilities signed by the LRA and Ugandan government has confirmed that there is a small group of LRA in the area, estimated to be twelve in number and moving in two groups. The rebels are accused of killing two UPDF soldiers at the end of last month and also looting food from displaced persons. Read more at The New Vision.

It is likely that small groups of LRA that remain in pockets in northern Uganda are not coordinating their activity with the LRA command in DR Congo and Sudan, but are acting more as armed criminals. Boosting northern Uganda’s weak police force and judicial institutions, not relying on Uganda’s military, is the best long-term solution to deal with such groups and other armed criminals in northern Uganda.

Many international news sources are reporting that the likely death of LRA second-in-command has many worried that disarray within the LRA ranks could upset ongoing peace talks. Ugandan army spokesman Lt. Chris Magezi told The Associated Press today that intelligence reports and tips from the LRA's former operations commander, Opio Makasi, who defected last month, indicated that Joseph Kony had killed his deputy, Vincent Otti early last month. Magezi said Kony reportedly accused Otti "of collaborating with LRA's enemies." Ruth Nankabirwa, Uganda's deputy minister for defense, asked citizens to pray for peace. "The government does not want chaos to prevail in LRA camp because that might negatively affect the peace talks," Nankabirwa said.

A delegation of about 450 people from Uganda is expected to visit the LRA base in Garamba Park, east DR Congo. The group's visit to Garamba is part of consultations aimed at building confidence in the Juba peace process. "At the end of our consultation in Uganda early December, we shall have mobilised a group of about 450 people that will go to meet Joseph Kony," LRA's peace delegation leader, Martin Ojul said on Monday. The delegation this week began its consultations on 'accountability and reconciliation' throughout the country. Read more at The Monitor.

Rumors that LRA second-in-command Vincent Otti has been killed continue to grow stronger. “intelligence brief” obtained by The New Vision alleges that Otti was killed during a battle with forces loyal to Kony on October 8th because Kony suspected Otti of “insubordination and hiding money received from LRA contacts… [and] also feared that Otti was dealing with individuals who wanted to eliminate him and take over the leadership.” Otti’s death has not been confirmed, and members of the LRA delegation continue to maintain that he is sick with cholera. Kony has reportedly named Okot Odhiambo, also indicted by the International Criminal Court, to replace Otti as his new deputy commander. Read more at The New Vision.

The impact of Otti’s death, should it be confirmed, on the peace talks is uncertain. Otti has been the primary public face and mouthpiece of the LRA military leadership since the peace talks began in July 2006 and a key liaison with the LRA negotiation team, the Ugandan government and mediators.

Speaking in Gulu yesterday, the head of the LRA delegation to the Juba peace talks asked northern Ugandans to forgive the rebel group for crimes committed during over two decades of conflict. Martin Ojul said, "The LRA made plenty of mistakes and I ask for forgiveness for what happened to our people." Ojul also reaffirmed the LRA delegation’s intention to consult with war-affected populations about issues such as justice and reconciliation related to the ongoing peace process, saying, "We are bringing a message of peace to the people of northern Uganda from the LRA leadership and we want your views to help resolve this problem once and for all." Ojul also announced that 450 Ugandans - including MPs, members of civil society and religious leaders - will be invited to Ri-kwangba in southern Sudan in December to consult with LRA leader Joseph Kony directly. Read more at The Monitor.

Members of the delegation also participated in traditional cleansing ceremony in Gulu that Acholi cultural leader Rwot Acana II said was “the beginning of the reconciliation process.” Read more at The New Vision.

Gulu resident district commissioner, Col. Walter Ochora said today, "From our intelligence, we know that Otti (the second-of-command of LRA) is dead and Kony removed his satellite phone and gave it to his signaller...Kony should call Radio MegaFM and clear the air about the death of Otti to avoid anxiety and speculation." The New Vision reports that Ochora has played a key role in confidence-building between the Government and rebels. Meanwhile, other northern Ugandan leaders have pressed the LRA to shed more light on Otti's status. The Monitor reports that Gulu District Chairman Norbert Mao said, "I have told Martin Ojul [LRA lead negotiator] that the cloud needs to be cleared. This cholera story is implausible. They should find another lie or come open and tell us what exactly happened to Otti."

The meeting Saturday night between President Museveni and the LRA negotiating team ended with the signing of a document that extends the Cessation of Hostilities truce to 31 January 2008. The Government's lead negotiator said that the meeting "obviously enhanced confidence in the whole process." Read more at The Monitor.

The New Vision reports that the LRA remains "cagey" about the fate of its second-in-command Vincent Otti, but top security sources that that "all indicators show that he is dead." The UPDF spokesperson, Major Felx Kulayigye, said, "Kony killed his first army commander Otti Lagony in similar circumstances during peace talks in 1994." Reports are rife that Otti was executed in the LRA hideout in Garamba in the DR Congo, on the orders of his boss, Joseph Kony. In an interview this weekend, the former LRA director of operations Opiyo Makasi said that Kony arrested Otti on 2 October following a disagreement on the peace process. Meanwhile, the LRA delegation has continued to assert that Otti is okay, even when President Museveni asked them to ask Kony to release Otti.

In the aftermath of President Museveni's visit to the White House, advocacy groups are charging that U.S. strategic aims in East Africa are overriding concerns about democracy and human rights. Uganda-CAN's favorite son and now executive director of Resolve Uganda, Michael Poffenberger, was quoted as saying he was "incredibly disappointed" by the content of the White House meeting. "The Museveni regime has been very effective in leveraging key aspects of relations with the US to prevent Washington from speaking critically about the situation in northern Uganda as well as about human rights and democracy throughout the country," Poffenberger said. "Uganda’s partnership in the war on terror and its troop deployment in Somalia have become the first priority in the US relationship." Read more at The East African.

Voice of America reports that the LRA delegation visiting Kampala plans to meet with President Museveni and consult with Ugandans across the country about ongoing peace negotiations. LRA spokesman Godfrey Ayoo said the delegation has been warmly received in Kampala. "The reception that the Lords Resistance Movement/Army's peace delegation has received in Uganda has been wonderful. There's a lot of excitement, a lot of expectation," he said. Ayoo says the purpose of the delegation is to demonstrate that his group wants peace and to involve the Ugandan people in the peace process.

The UN Secretary-General has issued the following statement on the peace process in northern Uganda: "The Secretary-General is encouraged by the official visit of a delegation of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) to Kampala, and hopes that the consultations taking place there will create momentum towards a comprehensive settlement to this conflict, which has brought great suffering to the people of Northern Uganda. He commends the Government of Uganda and the LRA leadership for their continued commitment to the peace process. The Secretary-General calls on the international and regional actors who have been assisting the peace process to continue their crucial support until an acceptable solution is found for this longstanding conflict. His Special Envoy will continue, in cooperation with the Mediation of the Government of Southern Sudan, to facilitate discussions with all parties aimed at reaching lasting peace with justice, for the benefit of all Ugandans."

This week two very different representatives from the LRA arrived in Uganda’s Entebbe airport near the capital of Kampala, highlighting the prospects and challenges of the ongoing peace process. On Tuesday members of the LRA negotiating team arrived to begin a landmark trip to meet with President Museveni face-to-face and to launch a six-week consultation across the country concerning the peace process. Though the visit is welcome, the LRA delegation’s consultations are beginning after nearly four months of delay, highlighting the slow pace of the peace talks that has frustrated many.

On Wednesday, Patrick Opiyo Makasi, a former LRA commander, arrived in Entebbe. Makasi surrendered to Congolese authorities outside of the LRA military command’s camp in northeastern DR Congo in October before being transferred to Uganda this week. He has reportedly been granted amnesty and hopes to now receive a resettlement package to smooth the transition to civilian life. Makasi’s transfer from Congolese to Ugandan authorities represents a positive example of cooperation between two countries that have often been at odds. However, his defection was in part spurred by infighting between top LRA commanders Joseph Kony and Vincent Otti. It is unclear what impact the rift could have on the structure of the LRA leadership or their willingness to engage in negotiations.

Stay tuned to our blog for more updates on how these stories develop in coming weeks.

Patrick Opiyo Makasi, a former LRA commander who surrendered to the Congolese army in October, has reportedly been granted amnesty. Makasi was returned to Uganda yesterday from the DR Congo. Under Uganda’s 2000 Amnesty Act all persons who renounce rebellion and surrender are granted amnesty and given resettlement packages. Read more at The Monitor.

Two humanitarian workers were killed and one injured yesterday in northern Uganda when unidentified gunmen ambushed the vehicle they were traveling in. The victims were local staff of the humanitarian group Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED). Banditry is common in northern Uganda due to lack of adequate civilian protection mechanisms and weak police and judicial institutions. Read more at Reuters.

Continuing our (late) Wednesday look at news from Uganda's neighbors, we focus today on three stories. First, the UN Security Council has voted unanimously to extend the mandate of the 18,800-strong U.N. force (UNMIS) monitoring the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the North and South. There remains concern that the CPA collapse as the largest southern political party, the SPLM, has suspended its involvement in the national government. The UN resolution adopted yesterday "stresses the importance of full and expeditious implementation of all elements of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement" and other peace accords.

Second, the International Crisis Group has published a new report, "Congo: Bringing Peace to North Kivu," that says failure to integrate Laurent Nkunda's forces into the national army has led to a deteriorating crisis centered in North Kivu. UN attempts to impose a ceasefire and appoint a special envoy to mediate have failed. They write, "A comprehensive initiative needs to be launched urgently to de-escalate the crisis and address the root causes of the conflict. This new crisis results from failures of the Congo peace process on army integration, economic governance and transitional justice...The illegal exploitation of natural resources continued unabated as all communities armed, animated by deep mutual resentments over land security, mass human rights abuses during the war and control of natural resources."

Third, there are ongoing peace talks in Libya between the Sudanese government and several rebel groups from the Darfur region. The UN and AU have been promoting these negotiations, but any progress has been hampered by rebel factionalization. In addition, several key rebel groups have declined to attend the talks. Diplomats are hoping to build momentum to encourage their participation, but prospects remain grim. For more on Darfur, check out the Genocide Intervention Network.