The LRA has denied reports that its second-in-command Vincent Otti is dead. According to Yusuf Adek, a member of the LRA delegation, Otti however is seriously ill with cholera. "Otti is badly off to the extent that he can not talk and his satellite phone has been taken away from him," Adek said on Radio Mega FM in Gulu on Tuesday night. Otti has not been heard from or seen for several weeks. People close to him, whom he used to call almost daily for the last two years, have not been able to establish contact with him for the last three weeks. Read more at The New Vision.

Patrick Makasi, the senior LRA commander who recently surrendered to UN troops in Congo, has confirmed reports that a rift had developed between LRA leader Joseph Kony and his deputy Vincent Otti. Makasi told journalists that the rift forced him out of the bush. "This rift has been going on for the last one and half years, up to the time it forced me out of the rebellion. It's not only between Kony and Otti, it's also among commanders," Makasi said. Read more at The Monitor.

The Monitor has published an editorial urging caution and warning against actions that might disrupt the Juba peace process. They write, "For the first time in more than 21 years representatives from the rebel Lords Resistance Army are in Kampala to consult with Ugandans and most importantly meet leaders here on how best to advance the fragile peace talks to end war in the north...In 20 years of a sustained military campaign and several failed attempts at peace talks, the current round of peace talks offers the biggest ray of hope."

In an interview last night with Voice of America, we said it's good news that President Bush is speaking in favor of the Juba peace process, but we remain concerned that escalating talk of regional military action could bring about a return of violent attacks. "We do believe that the President did one thing, which was to raise the profile of peace in northern Uganda, to emphasize that it was an issue important to him. And I think that this is something I can attribute to the fact that there are hundreds of thousands of people that have been marching, that have been writing their Congress members, emphasizing this important issue. At the same time, one of the messages we were trying to send going into this meeting was that the White House had to be clear that now is not the time for military buildup or for military threats against the LRA. With an ongoing peace process that offers the most viable opportunity to end this conflict, the last thing we need is provocation that provides cover for either the Ugandan government or the LRA to withdraw from talks and resume military operations," Peter Quaranto said.

Today President Museveni met privately with President Bush in the White House to discuss the ongoing Juba peace process, regional security, bilateral economic ties and efforts to combate HIV/AIDS. If President Bush listened to the hundreds of emails we sent him this week or read our recent policy brief, he’d have known that the need to commit to the peace talks and refrain from military operations against the LRA was a crucial message to deliver to his counterpart face-to-face. In fact, a spokesperson for the White House Security Council said after the meeting, "President Bush asked President Museveni for his assessment of the situation on the ground and then they had a discussion about the need for the peace talks to go forward."

However, in a post-meeting press conference in the White House, neither President Bush nor President Museveni mentioned that they had confered about the Juba peace talks. They instead emphasized their discussions of regional security issues in Somalia and Sudan, HIV/AIDS and economic partnerships. We can only hope that President Bush did lose this chance to emphatically echo the voices of millions of northern Ugandans depending on the precarious peace talks to enable them to rebuild their lives.

A State Department has issued a press release summarizing US foreign policy and engagement with Uganda to coincide with summit between the leaders of the two countries today in Washington, DC. The statement outlined five key areas of engagement; peace and security, governing justly and democratically, health and education, economic growth and humanitarian assistance. It highlights support for the peace process, civilian police force, protection of displaced persons, reintegration of ex-combatants and professionalizing the military as key priorities in northern Uganda, along with the provision of humanitarian assistance. Read the full press release here.

The LRA representatives announced today that they will participate in a historic meeting with President Museveni in Kampala on Thursday. The LRA delegation will discuss efforts to revive the lagging peace talks and from there will embark on a six week tour of Uganda to hold consultations with civilians and civil society about issues related to the talks. Formal negotiations between the LRA and Ugandan government are expected to resume following LRA consultations. Read more at The New Vision.

A Ugandan military spokesman announced that its forces killed one armed Karamojong civilian and wounded two wounded others as they attempted to raid cattle in Kitgum district in northern Uganda. Cross-border raids from Karamoja into northern Uganda have decimated cattle stocks and caused displacement since the 1980s, highlighting the need for an integrated approach to address security threats in the region. Read more at The Monitor.

In advance of President Bush's historic meeting today with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, Uganda-CAN's other half, Resolve Uganda has issued a statement this morning announcing the launch of our newest policy brief, titled "Giving Peace a Real Chance: Rethinking U.S. Policy Toward Northern Uganda," and encouraging the U.S. to use today's meeting to reaffirm its support for the ongoing peace talks. Below is the full text of the press release:

Washington, D.C., October 29, 2007 --- Tomorrow when President Bush meets his Ugandan counterpart, President Yoweri Museveni, to officially discuss the war in northern Uganda for the first time, the D.C.-based advocacy group Resolve Uganda says the U.S. president has a historic opportunity to advance peace in the long-troubled region.

"Given the United States' strong relationship with the Government of Uganda, President Bush has a chance to use real leverage in tomorrow's meeting to make sure the Ugandan Government is committed to securing sustainable peace for its people," says Resolve Uganda Executive Director Michael Poffenberger.

In a new report released today, Resolve Uganda calls on the U.S. to reaffirm its commitment to ongoing peace negotiations and denounce escalating talk of regional military action.

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John Prendergast, co-chair of ENOUGH and long-time advocate for northern Uganda, has authored a new report, titled "What to do about Joseph Kony?" The report reads, "The fate of a war that has crossed three international borders, displaced nearly two million people, and created the highest child abduction rate in the world hinges on the fate of one man: Joseph Kony, the notorious leader of the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA)." The report continues, "The time to strike a deal is now. President Museveni has issued a January deadline for a negotiated settlement before he would resume military action." The report says that Kony should be presented with three clear, credible choices: (1) accountability (domestic justice mechanisms), (2) asylum, (3) arrest. Prendergast argues that third country asylum or exile may well be the most practical solution.

The LRA rebels are denying speculation that Vincent Otti, their second-in-command, is dead. Speaking on Voice of America, LRA delegation technical advisor David Matsanga said that speculation about an alleged LRA split is aimed at undermining the peace process. He further said that reports that UN special envoy Joaquim Chissano did not meet with the LRA High Command are untrue. Matsanga said the rebels remain committed to the peace process.

Two active commanders of the LRA, emissaries of LRA leader Joseph Kony, have arrived at Entebbe International Airport and were warmly received by government officials. The emissaries, Ray Achama and Mike Anywar, are in Kampala to consult with the government on the progress of the Juba talks. This is the first time Kony is sending his commanders to Kampala for talks with the government. It is hoped a visit by the rebel commanders in Kampala and later Gulu will give a boost to the on-and-off talks. Read more at The Monitor.

The Monitor is reporting that the fate of LRA's second-in-command, Vincent Otti, remains a mystery after an alleged fight between him and LRA leader Joseph Kony last week. Kony's signaller, Labal Piny, is reportedly in possession of Otti's satellite phone set. UN special envoy Joaquim Chissano, who traveled to meet the rebels this week, was told Otti is sick with cholera. No verifiable information is currently available as to what may have sparked the disagreement between the rebel leaders. Meanwhile, the LRA delegation to the peace talks has vehemently denied that there is any split within the rebel ranks. The LRA delegation has also promised to come to Uganda this week for long delayed "consultations" on the third agenda item of the Juba talks: accountability and reconciliation.

Former LRA senior commander, Opio Makasi, is expected to be flown to Kampala by the United Nations on Tuesday, officials have said. The New Vision originally broke the story of Makasi's defection to UN forces in Congo last week. Makasi will be taken to Beni, for documentation at Uganda's Amnesty Commission offices before being flown to Kampala, security sources said. Read more at The Monitor.

The International Criminal Court prosecutor has expressed concern that food aid supplied to the LRA is being sold by them so that they can rearm if current peace talks fail. "Joseph Kony and the three other indicted commanders have regained strength and financial means," Luis Moreno-Ocampo told diplomats earlier this month. "We ask partner states to monitor with utmost vigilance supply networks, possible diversion of aid and funds to the benefit of the sought individuals." Caritas, a Catholic humanitarian organisation, has been supplying the rebels with food in support of the peace talks. UN special envoy Joachim Chissano has defended the food supplies to the LRA. "When the international community asks the LRA to assemble in Ri-Kwangba, it is our responsibility to feed them," he said. Read more at The New Vision.

Today’s weekly update on developments in wider Uganda highlights the ongoing insecurity in Uganda’s northeastern Karamoja region. Six civilians have been killed in recent weeks during forcible disarmament operations carried out by the Ugandan military. The UPDF also announced that it will be ending exercises in Kaabong district to protect cattle camps of vulnerable Karamojong from cattle raiding. A military spokesman said the decision was made after an incident in which several civilians were killed during a battle with “warriors” raiding a protected kraal.

A recent report “Response to Pastoral Wars” by Small Arms Survey argues that the violence in Karamoja must be seen in wider context of insecurity and armed pastoralists in neighboring regions of southern Sudan and northwestern Kenya. The report notes that efforts by regional governments to forcibly disarm pastoralists without addressing chronic poor governance and underdevelopment have instead intensified violence. It highlights local peace initiatives facilitated by local community-groups and elders as more appropriate ways to address insecurity and promote reconciliation.

LRA commander Opiyo Makasi, who surrendered to UN peacekeepers (MONUC) last week with his “wife” and child, has been transferred back to MONUC after a brief detention by the Congolese government in Kinshasa. Ugandan government officials said Makasi would soon be transferred to their authority and able to undergo a reintegration process. Read more at The Monitor.

Ironically, Ugandan officials announced today that Onen Kamudulu, an LRA commander who was replaced by Makasi after surrendering himself in 2004, has been arrested in Uganda on charges of armed robbery. Authorities allege that Kamudulu, supposed to have begun reintegration into civilian life, has been operating with an armed robbery gang in northern Uganda. If the charges are upheld, Kamudulu’s experience is reminder that support for ex-rebels, a strengthened civilian police force and judiciary and wider community development is crucial to providing a ‘peace dividend’ in the north. Without such initiatives, northern Ugandans will continue to face internal security threats – from Karamojong cattle raiders, armed criminals, former militia members and the UPDF – even if the LRA rebellion comes to a halt.

LRA rebels in the DR Congo and South Sudan failed to meet with UN special envoy Joaquim Chissano, claiming that commander Vincent Otti has cholera. However, recent reports of infighting between rebel factions loyal to Otti and leader Joseph Kony raise concerns that internal divisions are behind the decision to avoid meeting Chissano. Read more at The Monitor.

In our continuing Wednesday focus on northern Uganda's neighbors, we look today at developments in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). A new report by Human Rights Watch, titled "Renewed Crisis in North Kivu," details crimes against civilians by Congolese army soldiers, troops of renegade general Laurent Nkunda, and combatants of a Rwandan opposition force called the Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). A shaky ceasefire between the Congolese army and Nkunda’s troops fell apart in late August and skirmishes between them have continued. Today, the BBC reports that Nkunda will integrate 500 of his fighters into the national army as a gesture of good will. Nkunda has claimed that he is fighting to defend Congolese Tutsi, whom he claims will lack protection without his forces. The ensuing violence has involved not only killing and abduction, but also widespread rape and looting. Moreover, some 370,000 persons have been displaced since late 2006, adding to DRC's already intense humanitarian crisis.

Another report, by the Multi-Country Demobilisation and Reintegration Programme, highlights that two Ugandan rebel groups - the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and National Movement for the Liberation of Uganda (NALU) - have used this instability to maintain bases and exploit resources. Though with limited military capacity, these groups are believed to be attempting to establish new bases in western Uganda. The report also suggests that ADF/NALU rebels have made contacts with LRA rebels based in Garamba Park in northeastern DRC. There had been rumors of such meetings, but we were unable to confirm them. This shows how continued instability in eastern DRC has real implications for sustainable peacebuilding in northern Uganda and the whole of Uganda.

The office of the Presidential Special Adviser on northern Uganda has registered over 1,800 people in the Acholi sub-region who have been maimed in the two-decade conflict. President Museveni gave a directive to register all people maimed, who can then receive plastic surgery. Richard Todwong, the special presidential advisor, said that victims need financial support for the rest of their lives since many have permanent damage like lost limbs and broken families as a result. Read more at The Monitor.

Ugandan diplomats in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa have written to authorities there seeking urgent access to the detained LRA Operations Director Opio Makasi. Makasi allegedly surrendered to UN peacekeeping forces outside Garamba Park on October 9. The petition wired through the Congolese foreign affairs ministry follows two weeks of anxious waiting and rising unease in Kampala over the refusal by Kinshasa authorities to let Ugandan officials reach the detained senior-level LRA commander. Makasi is believed to have substantial information on the funding, armament and military strength of the rebel outfit. Read more at The Monitor.

LRA spokesman Godfrey Ayoo denied recent reports that there has been a split between LRA leader Joseph Kony and his deputy Vincent Otti, saying that, "The movement is solid." Another senior LRA commander, Opiyo Makasi, remains in the custody of the Congolese government in Kinshasa after reportedly surrendering to UN peacekeepers (MONUC). Ugandan government officials expressed concern that they have not been allowed to access Makasi yet. They are hoping to gain intelligence on the LRA from him, as well as allow him to reintegrate into Ugandan society. Read more at BBC News.

Six armed Karamojong civilians were killed in the past week during UPDF forcible disarmament campaigns in Uganda’s northeastern Karamoja region. Also, a priest was injured by unknown attackers in an ambush on a convoy returning from a peace mobilization meeting.

Meanwhile, UPDF commanders announced that they were dismantling efforts in Kaabong district to protect cattle camps of vulnerable Karamojong from cattle raiding. They said that Karamojong were abusing the service, for example by stealing their own cattle and requesting compensation. Civil society groups have reported that some UPDF-protected camps have been successful in preventing raiding and positive examples of cooperation between the military and local population. Read more at The Monitor.

Gulu District Chairman Norbert Mao writes in today's New Vision that "rumors about the LRA split shouldn't derail the Juba peace talks." He reports that the LRA senior commander Opio Masaki "stumbled upon a MONUC patrol," who disarmed him and handed him over to Congolese forces. Mao says that reports of other senior-level commanders defecting remain unconfirmed. He writes, "The circumstances demand a unified focus rather than finger-pointing and rumour-mongering. (UN Special Envoy) Chissano is due to travel to Ri Kwangba to meet the LRA. He should be allowed to take charge of the situation." Mao argues, "In view of the current Juba Talks, encouraging defection in the ranks of the LRA would only undermine confidence in the talks. The government would be ill-advised to think that talking different languages to different factions will yield durable peace."

Reuters reports that Mozambique's former President Joaquim Chissano, the current UN Special Envoy for LRA-affected areas, won the first Mo Ibrahim Prize for African leadership on Monday. The $5-million prize - the world's largest individual award - was presented by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan at a ceremony in London's city hall. Chissano was not in London though because he is currently in Juba trying to rejuvenate peace talks between the Ugandan government and LRA after recent fears of military buildup. He met with President Museveni on Saturday and briefed the diplomatic community on Sunday. Chissano warned against military action and threats at this time. Read more at The New Vision.

As part of a successful GuluWalk 2007, the Canadian ambassador to Uganda has urged patience with the LRA in order to bring a peaceful resolution to the 21-year war. "The challenge for the ongoing peace talks is that the LRA lack experience, having spent over 21 years fighting in the bush. The peace talks are a learning process that has to take time," said Ambassador Bryan Burton at the Kampala walk. Meanwhile in Toronto, more than 1,000 people took to the streets for GuluWalk. Over 100 cities in 15 countries participated with walks on Saturday.

The Ugandan government wants a top LRA commander, who surrendered to the UN forces in the DR Congo to be extradited to Uganda. Opio Makasi was LRA director of operations for three years. Makasi, 36, reportedly handed himself to UN troops near Garamba National Park last week and was flown to the Congolese capital of Kinshasa. He was with his wife and a child. Though reports say Makasi fled a violent rift between the two top most LRA leaders, Joseph Kony and Vincent Otti, the rebel outfit denied this yesterday. The Ugandan minister for defense said that Makasi qualifies for amnesty as he is not one among those indicted by the ICC. Read more at The New Vision.

The Monitor is reporting that three senior commanders of the LRA surrendered yesterday to the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), lending credence to reports that there has been a major split within the ranks of the rebel group. The Monitor reports that Commanders Caesar Acellam, Kwoyelo, and Smart Okello entered the SPLA camp at Maridi. The three rebel commanders are believed to have been caught up in a reported gun battle on October 10 in Garamba Park in which LRA leader Joseph Kony and his deputy Vincent Otti found themselves on opposing sides. "There have been problems in the LRA and these people have come to us for refuge," said a senior SPLA source who declined to be named considering the delicate nature of the situation. "We have received them, we have them in Maridi and we are waiting for further instructions from higher authorities." Yet, the SPLA army spokesman denied this report, according to Reuters. We will be following these developments closely.

Local leaders in northern Uganda are urging the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Joseph Kabila, to refrain from violence when trying to remove the LRA from their base in Garamba National Park. Cultural, religious and civic leaders in northern Uganda want an urgent meeting with Kabila to persuade him to avoid recent military arrangements with Kampala and instead use his influence and contacts to persuade the rebels to abandon the national park for Ri-Kwanga assembly site. Meanwhile, local leaders are also set to hold talks with Sudanese president Omar el-Bashir to urge him to directly support the Juba peace talks. Read more at IWPR.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reports that food insecurity for displaced people in northern Uganda will likely continue. Some 250,000 displaced people in camps in northern Uganda did not receive September rations from the World Food Programme (WFP), and other displaced people have not received food since July, after being cut off by the rains. Without new funds, WFP’s supply line for a total of 1.7 million people in Uganda will break in December. Meanwhile, UN OCHA reports that security, lack of clean water, sanitation and health facilities, and also the lack of thatching materials are critical challenges to IDP return.

Today’s New Vision reports that LRA factions loyal to LRA leader Joseph Kony clashed with those siding with second-in-command Vincent Otti last week, possibly leaving two wounded. Kony’s forces are said to be in control at the moment. The fighting is believed to have followed a disagreement on the future of the Juba peace talks and the $600,000 set aside for LRA consultations on justice and reconciliation. Though little is know about internal LRA leadership dynamics, Vincent Otti has emerged as the more visible and vocal of the two since the peace talks began last year, while Kony has remained somewhat reclusive. In another development, Opio Makasi, one of the senior commanders of the LRA indicted by the ICC, has reportedly been imprisoned in the Congolese capital Kinshasa. Stay tuned to the blog for more updates.

Ugandan and Congolese military officials met this week to discuss details of plans to coordinate regional military action against rebels in eastern DR Congo, including the LRA. The sides agreed that, "a meeting be held not later than November 20 to establish an acceptable mechanism in order to execute coordinated operations between UPDF and the Congolese army, supported by MONUC (UN peacekeepers), against Ugandan dissidents operating in eastern DRC." Read more at The New Vision.

Northern Ugandan religious, political and cultural leaders announced today that President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan has invited them to Khartoum to discuss the prospects of the Juba peace talks. Meanwhile, the Sudanese ambassador to Uganda said that the decision of South Sudan’s main party (SPLM) to suspend participation in the national unity government last week will not affect the Sudanese government’s support for the Juba talks. Read more at The New Vision.

This Saturday, October 20, over 100 cities in 15 countries will walk for peace in northern Uganda in GuluWalk 2007. There's still time to sign up and make your voice heard. From Toronto to Tucson to Tokyo to Tweed Heads, Australia, people will "be an icon" for peace in northern Uganda. For more, visit GuluWalk.com.

Reuters AlertNet is today featuring our latest Op/Ed on their homepage, titled "Fighting Chance: Activists are worried about talk of a military solution in northern Uganda." In the article, we write, "The current military buildup is unhelpful and runs a high risk of rekindling violence. It provides a convenient cover for either the Ugandan government or the LRA to back out of the Juba talks. The negotiations, flawed as they are, still offer the best chance to end the LRA security threat and begin addressing deeper grievances." Read more at Reuters AlertNet.

After holding consultative meetings last month, nearly 100 civil society organizations in northern Uganda have released a joint declaration on agenda item #3 of the Juba peace talks. This remarkable consensus document was signed by organizations covering the regions of Acholi, Lango, Teso and West Nile. The organizations call for the establishment of a Special Court for the prosecution of those most responsible for human rights violations in northern Uganda. Meanwhile, they appeal to the Ugandan parliament to "expeditiously domesticate the ICC bill in line with national and traditional justice mechanisms." They urge the Ugandan government to request the UN Security Council to defer the ICC arrest warrants for a period of 12 months. For those prosecuted, they recommend penalties such as "deprivation from heading public offices, deprivation from working with children and deprivation of liberty through serving prison sentences."

The declaration also reads, "Forced encampment and displacement should be recognized and acknowledged as a crime against humanity and the circumstances investigated and the persons responsible for such occurrences brought to book...Furthermore, any return program should be in line with the IDP policy and most importantly, there should be no forced return. Return should be voluntary." The organizations then call for the development of a reparations program for northern Uganda beginning now before the outcome of peace talks. They write that reparations could include schools, hospitals, monuments and memorial centers. "Furthermore, a national day of mourning should be established to commemorate the suffering and lives lost in the conflict." These groups also advocate a National Truth and Reconciliation Commission with a tenure of four years for truth-telling and reconciliation.

This declaration is a unique moment in history with northern Uganda civil society - across its regions - speaking with one voice. Now we must act to make sure that policymakers cannot ignore it.

President Museveni has vowed to turn around northern Uganda's fortunes by advocating industrialisation in the region despite resistance from some of the local leaders. "We want industrialisation of northern Uganda by for instance developing the sugar industry in Gulu, Amuru and Adjumani, fruit processing plants in Arua and Soroti. The government will do everything possible to set up these industries," the President said on Monday when announcing the $600 million 3-year Peace, Development and Recovery Plan for Northern Uganda. Many war survivors have long expressed fear that the government would take their land to develop large-scale industry. Such moves, without the consent of northern Ugandans, would violate their rights and perpetuate feelings of marginalization. Read more at The Monitor.

Recent reports indicate that clashes between Karamojong civilians and the Ugandan military over forced disarmament operations have increased in recent weeks and resulted in casualties on both sides. Tens of thousands of illegal guns are currently circulating in Uganda’s northeastern Karamoja region, but government efforts to disarm civilians have only intensified the violence by not adequately addressing decades of marginalization, cattle-raiding, abusive military operations and a lack of civilian police and judicial institutions. Ugandan President Museveni recent comments that armed Karamojong civilians should not be “pampered” and advocating for a military solution to the insecurity, have raised fears that the Ugandan government will continue to ignore this broader context of the crisis in Karamoja. Stay tuned to the blog in coming weeks to stay abreast of developments in Karamoja.

US President George Bush has invited President Museveni for a meeting at the end of this month. An October 12 press release from the White House Press Secretary Dana Perino said Museveni is expected on October 30 to discuss a number of issues. "[Mr Bush] and President Museveni will discuss Uganda's leadership in Somalia, the LRA, and Mr Museveni's development plan for northern Uganda, as well as their strong partnership to combat malaria and HIV/AIDS in Uganda," Perino said. On the LRA, Museveni will brief the US government about the progress of the peace talks that have been ongoing in Juba for over a year. Read more at The Monitor.

Ugandan President Museveni today pledged to rebuild the war-ravaged north with a $600-million aid package for roads, education and small-scale industry. "The goal of the present plan (is) to consolidate peace, recovery and rehabilitation," Museveni said at the launch of the Northern Uganda Peace, Recovery & Development Plan (PRDP). Museveni said the reconstruction plan aimed to help the north catch up with the more prosperous south and move away from subsistence farming to a cash economy. He also pledged to help internal refugees return home, repair roads, build a further power station on the Nile to power the region and fund processing plants for farm products. Read more at Reuters.

The World Food Programme (WFP) has started airlifting 3,000 metric tonnes of relief food items to 248,000 internally displaced persons in Acholi and floods victims in Lango. Most displaced persons have not received their food rations for July and August due to the bad roads caused by the floods, according to Bai Monky Sankoh, the head of WFP Gulu office. The flooding caused mass devastation to over 300,000 people: many of them displaced by the war in northern Uganda. Read more at The New Vision.

We have a new Op/Ed today in both The Sudan Tribune and The New Vision, titled "The Military Threat to Peace in Northern Uganda." The article begins: "For almost three years, I have been part of the growing movement to press Western governments to respond to the crisis in northern Uganda. International neglect, while aid poured into Kampala, has allowed the war to persist for two decades. Today that silence is history; world leaders from Washington to London to Brussels are speaking about the urgency of resolving the conflict. Yet, priority does not guarantee prudence. In fact, many Western officials have begun making reckless military threats that threaten to undermine the ongoing peace process.

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The Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) has suspended its involvement in the national unity government in Khartoum until its northern partners meet a long list of demands. The SPLM has accused Khartoum of failing to implement parts of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the 21-year civil war. These especially include boundary demarcations and the redeployment of northern troops from the south. South Sudan's President Salva Kiir warned recently there could be a return to war if the deal was not respected. Last week, U.S. envoy to Sudan, Andrew Natsios, said that North-South relations had deteriorated into a "poisonous" political atmosphere. The Bush Administration had once hailed the CPA as one of its greatest achievements. This development, especially if the CPA collapses, could have devastating consequences for northern Uganda. Read more at The Monitor.

Meanwhile, today the International Crisis Group released a new report on southern Sudan, urging the international community to re-engage on implementation of the CPA. They write, Mounting tensions in the oil-rich Abyei region are the most dangerous threat to reignite that war...The ruling National Congress Party is violating the CPA by refusing the 'final and binding' ruling of the Abyei Boundary Commission, leaving an administrative and political vacuum." Read the full report here.

Uganda has reportedly blocked a move by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights to include on the Agenda of the UN General Assembly a report on the human rights situation in northern Uganda. Uganda's Permanent Representative to the UN, Francis Butagira, successfully put up a fight that resulted in leaving the report out of the Agenda. He said adopting the report would amount to, "political interference in Uganda's internal affairs." "The report may poison the progress so far achieved in the Juba Peace Talks," Butagira said. He added that the report could be the work of politicians "fighting the regime and working to tarnish the image of the country." Read more at The Monitor.

Here’s our weekly Thursday update and analysis of happenings around Uganda and how they relate to the north. This week we focus on a new report released by Oxfam International, IANSA and Saferworld - titled Africa’s Missing Billions - which estimates the impact of armed conflict on development efforts across Africa. The report estimates that armed conflict costs African economies $18 billion dollars a year, severely hampering access to education and healthcare and preventing millions from escaping poverty.

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Luis Moreno Ocampo, the Chief Prosecutor for the International Criminal Court, has insisted that the ICC will continue to urge regional governments and UN peacekeepers to arrest 4 LRA commanders indicted by the court in 2005. Ocampo said, “Those warrants must be executed. There is no excuse. There is no tension between peace and justice in Uganda: arrest the sought criminals today and you will have peace and justice tomorrow. Victims deserve both.” Ocampo also accused the LRA of regrouping and committing atrocities in the DR Congo during the ongoing Juba talks. Read more at The New Vision.

Here is our Wednesday look at a few key stories about northern Uganda's neighbors - southern Sudan and the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This week the stories speak for themselves.

"US envoy sounds alarm over danger of renewed north-south Sudan civil war" (International Herald Tribune) - On a 10-day tour of Sudan, U.S. special envoy to Sudan Andrew Natsios warned that the country could fall back into civil war if the peace deal between the government and former southern rebels is not properly implemented soon. The most serious danger is the heavy militarization of the contested areas around Sudan's oil fields, where neither the government nor southerners have followed their pledges to pull out troops, he said.

"UN chief says 'rape epidemic' in eastern DR Congo is worst in the world" (New York Times) - "Eastern Congo is going through another one of its convulsions of violence, and this time it seems that women are being systematically attacked on a scale never before seen here. According to the United Nations, 27,000 sexual assaults were reported in 2006 in South Kivu Province alone, and that may be just a fraction of the total number across the country."

"UNHCR Sees Military Build-up in Eastern Congo" (Voice of America) - The United Nations refugee agency says there are worrying signs that fighting could erupt again among government forces, renegade troops and rebels in the DR Congo's North Kivu province.

"Elders visit south Sudan to support peace" (Reuters) - South Sudan President Salva Kiir on Tuesday urged a group of "elders" statesmen to pressure the northern government to implement key parts of the north-south peace deal. The "elders" including anti-apartheid hero Desmond Tutu, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, veteran peace mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, and women and children's rights activist Graca Machel travelled to southern Sudan to hear what was stalling the peace process since the deal signed in January 2005.

"Congo Rebels Seize Gorillas Habitat" (Associated Press) - Rebels have seized an area in eastern Congo that serves as a wildlife habitat for endangered mountain gorillas, threatening one of the last known populations of the animals

Finally, if you're interested in news about continuing violence in Darfur, we advise you to check out Eric Reeves' site, Alex de Waal's blog, and Genocide Intervention Network.

Speaking on Voice of America, the chief mediator at the Juba peace talks, Riek Machar, is hopeful that negotiations can resume soon. Machar said the groundwork is set for the LRA to begin their consultations. Machar further reported, "We also decided that it may be best if the LRA is accompanied by some of the AU (African Union) observers to the peace talks." Machar said he is confident the rebels would finish their consultation in time for the recommencement of the next round of peace talks. There is hope that will be the end of October.

The Ugandan Chief of Defence Forces said on Sunday that the army will pursue the LRA rebels if they fail to sign the peace agreement with the Government in Juba. Gen. Aronda Nyakairima also said the UPDF had already started putting in place a process of reconciliation for the LRA rebels. He also noted that the UPDF had passed out 77 fighters from the LRA and integrated them into the army at a recent ceremony. Read more at The New Vision.

Rains which continue to devastate many communities in northern and eastern Uganda are reportedly mitigating some conflict in Uganda’s Karamoja region. The Monitor reports that the rains have diminished the need for pastoralists to range widely in search of water, lessening the chances that feuding groups will come to violence. While drought and competition for natural resources are to blame for some of the widespread insecurity in the region, a political crisis lies at the heart of Karamoja’s woes. Commercialized cattle thievery enabled by a weak civilian police force and aggressive military operations to disarm Karamojong civilians have disrupted traditional seasonal migration routes and made vast swaths of territory no-go zones. The consequences have been artificial aggravation of resource scarcity, breakdowns in traditional alliances between Karamojong groups and a reduction in the capacity of elders and women to mitigate violent cattle raids – problems no amount of rain can address.

The LRA warned over the weekend that denying them hundreds of thousands of dollars to hold a public consultation exercise may unravel the Juba peace talks. Plans to seek delegates for a forum on the peace process failed to go ahead on October 1 as intended because funds were blocked, said LRA spokesman Godfrey Ayoo. "Donors and UN office in Juba bears full responsibility for the delay. We are urging them to act fast and provide resources so that we can hold our meeting," Ayoo said. Read more at AFP.

U.S. Senator Russ Feingold spoke on the Senate floor last Thursday about his recent trip to Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Speaking about the LRA, Feingold said, "On a recent trip to Uganda, the U.S. Assistant Secretary for African Affairs signaled that the U.S. would support regional efforts for a more militarized policy towards all rebel groups...Mr. President, this is not the time to start talking about our support for a military solution to these conflicts. Instead, we should seek to build upon current diplomatic initiatives - both in the region as well as at New York last week at the opening of the UN General Assembly." Read more at AllAfrica.com.

Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda, Uganda's top negotiator in the Juba peace talks, has said the LRA must disarm, demobilise, deal seriously with issues of impunity from war crimes and sign a final peace deal before there can be any serious approach from the Kampala government to the ICC’s chief prosecutor to drop existing indictments. "There shall be no blanket amnesty to the indicted LRA commanders," Rugunda said. "The LRA commanders have to undergo accountability. The accountability will be done in accordance with both Uganda’s formal national laws and with traditional [ethnic] policies that have been used to resolve conflicts." Read more at the Institute for War & Peace Reporting.

Today's New York Times includes a deeply disturbing account of the systematic rape that is devastating women in Uganda's western neighbor, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The article reads, "Eastern Congo is going through another one of its convulsions of violence, and this time it seems that women are being systematically attacked on a scale never before seen here. According to the United Nations, 27,000 sexual assaults were reported in 2006 in South Kivu Province alone, and that may be just a fraction of the total number across the country." The UN humanitarian coordinator John Holmes said "the sexual violence in Congo is the worst in the world." UN officials say that Congolese government troops are often the perpetrators of this rape. The Times reports, "Large swaths of the country, especially in the east, remain authority-free zones where civilians are at the mercy of heavily armed groups who have made warfare a livelihood and survive by raiding villages and abducting women for ransom." Read more at The New York Times.

The Ugandan government has urged the international community to pressure the LRA rebels to honor the commitments signed under the Cessation of Hostilities agreement at the Juba peace talks. According to the UN news service, Foreign Affairs Minister Sam Kuteesa told the UN General Assembly that the international community must step up pressure because peace talks "cannot go on forever." Kutesa informed the assembly's annual high-level debate that the LRA had not met any of the terms of the agreement it signed with the Government in August 2006. The minister also asked the community to put a time frame on the peace talks. Read more at The New Vision.

Contradicting earlier news reports today, LRA spokesman Godfrey Ayoo said that the LRA delegation to the Juba peace talks will not be visiting Kampala this week. The delegation was supposedly scheduled to visit Uganda’s capital and meet with President Yoweri Museveni, but Ayoo said, "The claims that we are visiting Kampala are false and just a ploy by a government seeking to gain political capital over the matter." Ayoo also said that the delegation had not finalized dates for a tour of war-affected areas in northern Uganda yet. Read more at BBC.

Members of the LRA negotiating team in Juba plan to visit Uganda for the first time and are expected to meet President Museveni. The visit to the capital, Kampala would be the first leg of a weeklong visit beginning today that will also take the team to war-affected areas in Gulu and Lira districts. "On Thursday the LRA delegation will travel to Kampala," said South Sudan President Salva Kiir. "Even the Ugandans could not believe that these people can set foot there." Read more at The Monitor.

LRA spokesman Godfrey Ayoo has said the Uganda peace talks have been dragging on aimlessly because of the attitude of the Uganda government. In a recent interview with The East African, Ayoo also scoffed at the recent threat by U.S. officials that it would support a regional military operation to flush out the LRA if peace talks fail. "It is unfortunate that the US is rallying regional governments to fight the LRA, when we are not involved in the ceasefire violations. We know the US has always branded us as terrorists. This attitude should change, with the US looking for a better way to assist in the talks," said Ayoo. He further warned that provocation by the U.S. will not be tolerated. "If we are attacked, we shall consider it an extreme act of provocation, an act of aggression, a declaration of war, a reopening of the war theatre in Uganda and an end to the Juba peace talks," he threatened. This militaristic "war of words" is the last thing people in northern Uganda want: they are simply asking for the security and freedom to leave the squalid camps and return home.

The East African is reporting that President Kabila of the DR Congo recently sought assurances from President el Bashir of Sudan that the Khartoum government will cut off support to the LRA rebels. Congolese sources told the newspaper that the Congolese Regional Co-operation Minister met President Bashir in Khartoum two weeks ago to discuss ways of handling the LRA rebels. The Government of Sudan has been the main institutional supporter of the LRA over the conflict, though the Bashir government claims it has cut links since the 1999 Nairobi Peace Accord. Yet, intelligence sources cite an airdrop of uniforms and supplies that the LRA rebels received in February that originated from Sudan as evidence that the rebels are still receiving external support. Congolese officials are seeking regional cooperation to pressure the LRA so that they do not become a more potent military threat in the already volatile eastern DR Congo. Still, many worry that sudden military action may disrupt peace talks expected to resume later this month in Juba.

Last week, Human Rights Focus (HURIFO) in Gulu released a critical new report, titled "Fostering the Transition in Acholiland: From War to Peace, From Camps to Home." This report is based on HURIFO researchers spending over three months living in internal-displacement camps, conducting voluntary (not paid) interviews. To our knowledge, this methodology is one of the most rigorous of any recent report. In the report, HURIFO's strongest argument is that all external interventions should be limited to providing the "minimum effective dose" needed to let war-affected communities rebuild itself. The report says that the Acholi are not dependent on aid, and that with the necessary information, they can and should take the lead on their return and recovery. It argues that the continued humanitarian focus on making IDP camps and transition sites sustainable is violating northerners' right to voluntary return. The report says that the lack of information - on peace talks, on de-mining activity, on movement restrictions, on quality of service provision at return sites - is the biggest factor in communities being empowered to return home.

In its second section, HURIFO addresses concerns that women and youth will be disempowered in processes of return. In camp life, women and youth have taken on new leadership roles. HURIFO argues that external interventions must not now unintentionally disempower these women, especially those initiatives taking place in the name of "revitalizing traditional authority." The report further considers that control of land, if not managed with sensitivity, could be used to disenfranchise women and youth. Finally, this section also notes that many local NGO staff are exposed to widespread abuses, including long hours, sexual abuse and little job security.

The third and final section of the report emphasizes the absolute primacy of peace before considering long-term issues of transitional justice. HURIFO writes that questions of justice and reconciliation can only be dealt with legitimately and effectively AFTER the war has ended and AFTER people have returned home. In particular, HURIFO worries that transitional justice may be one-sided, not addressing human rights violations by the Ugandan government. Further, their research finds that Acholi still feel deeply betrayed by the government for its failure to protect them. They suggest that a program of compensation may be very effective toward both justice and reconciliation. Yet, HURIFO is clear: "Neither the LRA nor the government has the right to decide how accountability and justice will be addressed after the war." The report finally recommends a body of Acholi civil society, especially including women, to consider these issues and a long-term strategy for transitional justice.

Uganda’s Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa called for the international community to increase diplomatic and military pressure on the LRA to comply with agreements signed during the ongoing Juba peace talks. Speaking yesterday before the UN General Assembly in New York, Kutesa accosted the LRA for not assembling in Ri-kwangba in South Sudan, as stipulated by the August 2006 cessation of hostilities agreement. Kutesa called on the international community to respond, saying, “As we inch towards a comprehensive peace agreement, international support and understanding is required to balance the need for durable peace and stability on one hand and the imperative for justice on the other.”

Kutesa also joined a chorus of world leaders from Uganda, DR Congo, the US and Belgium who have recently called on UN peacekeepers in the DR Congo to deploy near LRA bases there to force them into the Ri-kwangba assembly point - despite fears that such a deployment could disrupt the Juba peace talks. Read more at UN News.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni announced yesterday that the Ugandan military will redeploy within Uganda’s northeastern region of Karamoja to focus on securing its borders from armed cattle rustlers from Sudan and Kenya. For over a year the UPDF has tried to forcibly disarm illegally armed civilians in Karamoja, which is awash in small arms, but many Karamojong claim that uneven disarmament patterns leave them vulnerable to internal and foreign armed cattle rustlers. Read more at The New Vision.

Floods have forced over 50,000 people to seek shelter in six new displacement camps in the Lango region of northern Uganda. Local officials said that the new camps lacked adequate shelter, food and medicine and that the displaced are at risk of water-borne diseases such as malaria and diarrhea. Read more at allAfrica.com.

A new film released by IRIN explores processes of return and recovery and debates about justice and reconciliation currently taking place in northern Uganda. Watch or download the film online!

The Ugandan government has said that LRA leader Joseph Kony will not get the death sentence when he faces trial for crimes committed during the two decades war in the North. The chief government negotiator, Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda, said reconciliation would be the overriding factor when implementing the comprehensive peace agreement. "While sentencing, we should bear in mind reconciliation. Therefore the death sentence should not be countenanced," he said last week. Important for the Government, Rugunda stressed, was that the outcome would satisfy the victims first, the people of Uganda second and the international community last. The minister was reacting to a report by Human Rights Watch, which demanded for the death penalty to be scrapped in Uganda if the LRA rebels were to be tried by national courts. Read more at The New Vision.

President Museveni has applauded the victims of the 20-year insurgency in northern Uganda for their seeming willingness to forgive LRA rebels. "I am told the victims in this area are ready to forgive these people [rebels] who committed various atrocities against them. I was worried the people would take the law in their hands when they [rebels] return [home]," Museveni said on Saturday. "I hope Kony and his group will use the chance of peace talks," he said. The president is currently on a tour of the war-torn region to explain his 14-point recovery programme that includes elimination of terrorism, construction of roads, education, micro-finance projects, industrialisation and health. Read more at The Monitor.